Usually quiet Senate races making news today

• Collins heavily favored in Maine

The conventional wisdom of the Maine Senate race is that it is and will remain a toss-up between incumbent GOP Susan Collins and challenger Tom Allen. My Senate rankings reflect that. The DSCC wants to believe that Collins will be weighted down by her party's impopularity in New England, and that she will be this cycle's Lincoln Chaffee: Personally popular, but unable to fight off the R next to his name.

Yet, one of the first polls of the race was released today by Research 2000, and it does not look good for Democrats. Susan Collins trashes Allen 56% to 33% -- not only is she ahead by a massive lead, but she is above the threshold of 50% under which incumbents are deemed vulnerable. Collins's re-elect number is also very strong. It stands at 55%, with 21% saying they will vote to replace her and 20% that they would consider doing so. Allen will have to move these numbers very fast to even make this race competitive. With Democrats eyeing many other opportunities, the Maine seat could soon fall off their radar screen if it is seen as less promising than the New Mexico and Nebraska open seats or second-tier races such as KY and NC.

• A GOP candidate in New Jersey

Republicans have a candidate against incumbent Democrat Frank Lautenberg. Businesswoman Estabrook has announced that she will take on the 83 year-old Democrat. Estabrook is not viewed as a particularly strong candidate, but yet again no Republican will make this seat truly competitive. New Jersey is a Democratic state. The only danger for Lautenberg is that voters perceive him as too old, or that he is victim of some senile moment that will make voters look for an alternative at the last minute -- which is why the GOP wants to at least have a candidate in the race.

You can bet, however, that Democrats are relishing the thought that the GOP might get excited about a New Jersey race again and dump millions there for nothing. This is what happened in the 2004 presidential race and the 2006 senatorial race, as polls early in the fall showed Bush and Kean surprisingly competitive and sometimes ahead, but Kerry and Menendez ended up winning in double-digits. This time again, Republicans are excited about promising polls early on. But New Jersey is New Jersey, and Democrats have even less to fear this time around.

• Jim Neal acknowledges he is gay

The only Democratic candidate running against Elizabeth Dole is openly gay, as he revealed to online blogs and later to the AP this week. Jim Neal was hardly considered a top or second-tier candidate in the first place, but can an openly gay candidate win in a Southern state like North Carolina? It would obviously be a great statement if Neal managed this feat -- defeating a Republican like Liz Dole in the process, but I don't believe any Senator has ever been elected having already acknowledged his homosexuality. Could North Carolina really be the first , of all states?

It still remains a mystery why not a single elected official from the state have jumped into this race. The Lieutenant Governor and Attorney General are running against each other in the gubernatorial primary (the seat will be open), instead of dividing up the role between them. Term-limited Gov. Easley is not running for anything. And no state Rep. or state Senator is willing to jump to this race (despite both the state House and the state Senate being controlled by Democrats).

• SUSA's new approval ratings

These three news items suggest that Republicans are pushing back in Senate news, and that the picture is not quite as bad for them as is believed to be the case (including by me in my Senate Rankings). The one good news for Democrats is to be found among SUSA's new batch of senatorial approval numbers.

Kentucky Republican Mitch McConnell, the Senate Minority Leader, has seen his approval rating drop in the past few months as he has taken on an increasingly partisan role in Washington. The latest numbers have him at a 49-45 approval rating -- 45 being his highest disapproval rating in any of SUSA's monthly polls. With Democratic Attorney General Stumbo looking to jump in this race, McConnell could find himself in a dogfight -- at the very least forcing the RNSC to spend precious energy, time and resources into this race.

Among other numbers for Republicans running for re-election, Norm Coleman posts a weak-but-acceptable 49-42; Oregon's Gordon Smith comes out with the same numbers. The most interesting numbers are perhaps Pete Domenici's. For the past few months, his approval rating had been steadily dropping because of his involvement in the attorneys firing scandal. From 64% in February, his approval had fallen to 55% in July and 41% in September. But in the two surveys taken after Domenici announced he would not run for re-election, the Senator posts pre-scandal approval ratings: 60% in the latest release! Are New Mexicans so relieved to be rid of hm they are now applauding his every move?