Presidential Diary: LA Times poll and the McClurkin controversy

• Obama's dilemma

The Obama campaign is coming under very heavy fire for scheduling gospel singer Donnie McClurkin for a concert in support of Obama this week-end in South Carolina. McClurkin holds evangelical views on matters of homosexuality -- in particular that homosexuality is a choice, and gay rights groups are urging Obama to cut ties with McClurkin.

Obama is cut in a bind here: On the one hand the need to not anger gays, a powerful constituency of the Democratic base. The last thing Obama want is a reputation as an anti-gay candidate (Richardson already fills that niche in the Democratic race). On the other, McClurkin is popular among South Carolinian black voters that Obama absolutely needs to attract to his candidacy. Obama issued a statement distancing himself from McClurkin's position and affirming his support for gay rights, but not cancelling McClurkin's appearance.

An attempt at taking a middle ground that is not satisfying gay rights group. Or is this part of Obama's postpartisan and postideological doctrine? There is room for everyone in Obama's America.

• Clinton with big leads against all Republicans, Democrats

The LA Times came out with a new national poll and the results are good for Hillary Clinton in both the primary and the general election. They are also good for Dems in general, as neither Obama nor Clinton lose a single match-up against any Republican:

• In the Democratic primary race, Clinton has a lead as massive as in other surveys out recently, and Edwards has creeped up behind Obama: Clinton has 48% to Obama's 17% and Edwards 13%. Clinton has a much higher score among non-whites (54%) than among whites (45%). Other internals: 55% are sure of their vote. Also, the two groups among which Clinton is strongest -- non-whites and women -- are much more set on their choice than men and whites, which spells trouble for Clinton's rivals.


• In the Republican race, it is Giuliani all the way: He gets 32% to Thompson's 15%, McCain's 13%, Romney's 11% and Huckabee's 7%. Interesting internals: Only 36% of respondents are certain of their vote -- underscoring the fluidity of the race. Also, while Giuliani does not lead among religious voters, but he does come in second at a high 23%, two points behind Thompson. He also has bigger leads the less the subgroup attends Church. But this does indicate that some religious voters might not be aware of his positions. But good newss for Giuliani, a full 50% of Republicans voters say they could vote for a candidate supporting gay rights/abortion, with only 38% who said they couldn't. In a 5-way race, Giuliani can come away with a win without those 38%.


• Clinton leads McCain by 10% (48-38), Romney by 15 (49-34), Giuliani by 6 (47-41) and Thompson by 11 (49-38). She outpolls all Republicans among self-described moderates by 20+ points.


• Obama beats Giuliani only by 3 (43-40), McCain by 8 (44-36), Romney by 10 (42-32) and Thompson by 15 (46-31). Notice how there are much more undecided voters when the Democratic candidate is Clinton -- with the surprising finding that the decline in undecideds helps Clinton here!


• One last interesting set of numbers. The pollster asked respondents an open-ended question about why they like/dislike Clinton, with voters giving two replies. The top reason at 17% is "don't trust her/dishonest." Fourth is... "no particular reason" (11%) followed by "she is a woman/not yet time for a woman to be president (9%). Sadly, the latter response was given much more by women than by men! Also on the list "stuck with Bill Clinton affair affair/stayed married."

All in all, a very good poll for Democrats -- especially for Hillary. Giuliani might still be competitive, but the bottom line is that Democrats win all 8 matchups as they are now doing consistently. Gone are the days Hillary lost by 10-11 points systematically.