Late Night Breaking - Jeanne Shaheen entering the NH race

Breaking news out of NH on this Thursday night. The New Hampshire Union Leader is now reporting that Jeanne Shaheen is soon going to declare her candidacy for the Senate race. This is obviously huge news for Democrats, as New Hampshire is their top pick-up opportunity, provided Shaheen is a candidate. And a day after Mark Warner's entrance in the Virginia race got Democrats excited and optimistic and a day after Robert Novak predicted Democrats might gain as many as 8 seats, this news will further dampen Republican Senate prospects.

The last public polling made of this race was a few months ago, but it was very conclusive. In a late June ARG matchup, Shaheen led by a stunning 57 to 29%. Quite a margin for an incumbent to lose by. In a July poll by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center, Shaheen led by a similarly healthy (albeit a bit smaller) 54% to 38%.

Sununu beat Shaheen by a few points in a very tight 2002 Senate race in which Bush's last minute campaign blitz propelled him (and other Republicans around the country) to victory against all odds. But that seems almost surreal now, as Bush's popularity has collapsed since then and as Sununu's Republican brand is precisely what makes him so unpopular today. The GOP got a beating in New Hampshire last November (NH being the state that possibly had the biggest Democratic wave), and there is no reason not to expect the same next next year.

Now, the big question is whether Shaheen will face a contested primary. There are three Democrats in the race: Marchand, Swett and Buckley. None of them have said for sure they will get out of the race to make room for Shaheen, and they have all been running for quite some time now. In fact, Buckley hinted pretty strongly recently that he would not get out, while the two other candidates implied that they probably would without giving a definite answer. The Union Leader has a good run-down of the situation with this.