Presidential campaigns looking for their voice
Labor Day is meant to be start of a campaign. After Labor Day, campaigns are set on a message and they drive it home all the way to the election. This time around, it is obious that many candidates are still seaching for their voice.
First off, one of the major GOP candidates has not even announced his candidacy yet. Thompson is supposed to finally come out tomorrow -- which means that he will miss the Republican debate in New Hampshire tonight. He is however airing an ad on Fox News all day today, with the full version of the ad to air on the O'Reilly show a few minutes only before the debate is set to start. You can watch the video here.
The big question of the next few weeks is going to be what this means for the Republican race. Thompson reminds many observers of Wesley Clark in '04. He was pushed in the race by people who thought their party's field was weak; he was surrounded with intense speculation starting in the spring, but chose to stay put until the fall, leading many to question whether he had passed his window of opportunity; and he finally entered the race when voters were already started to commit to other candidates and feel more comfortable with Dean, thereby reducing the Clark campaign's rationale. Thompson appears to have the same problems at this point: Why did not enter sooner? At this point, many conservatives feel more comfortable with Romney than they did at the beginning of the summer, and Giuiliani has spent a few more months on top, with the advantages front-runner status brings you.
Romney is also attempting to step up his campaign, by airing a new ad set to air in South Carolina. Why is this significant? Romney is now favored to win the first three states (IA, NH and MI) but he has not been able to take-off in South Carolina. His mormonism seems to be drowning him there. Romney's calculations was probably that Southern conservative voters would also be uncomfortable with Giuliani, but Thompson's entrance changes the dynamic by making him the natural candidate in Southern states. So Romney needs to build some support in SC soon, and this is start of that effort.
On the Democratic side, both the Clinton and Obama campaigns have news ads out -- and they are both called "Change!" In Clinton's ad, the campaign remains on message: Hillary can bring change and has experience: If we have the conviction, she has the experience. If we’re ready for change, she’s ready to lead." And Obama's implicitely accuses Clinton of being too much in the establishment, and thus of not bringing enough change: "It wasn't to score points with the powers in Washington. It was because Barack Obama wants government to work for people." It is very interesting to see Clinton go after the "change" argument as well, since that is supposed to be Obama's strong point. She is clearly trying to neutralize one of the main attacks Obama (and Edwards) will likely soon aim at her - that she is not enough of a change agent.
Aside from ads, a hot story this morning concerns Obama and Oprah Winfrey! The Washington Post reports that Oprah is set to take a much bigger role in the Obama campaign. Until now, she had been "merely" voicing her support for Obama. But it could all soon become much bigger:
Finally, an Edwards campaign memo obtained by the Boston Globe proves once again that Edwards is going to use the electability argument in the current months. He believes he is the most electable Democrat, and he plans to tell that to voters:
The past few weeks have shown this is going to be one of Edwards's main messages. Elizabeth Edwards said about the same thing two weeks ago when she accused Clinton of being too divisive. This perception is clearly Hillary's biggest hurdle in the primary, and with Obama and Edwards voicing the same message against her, it might actually stick.
First off, one of the major GOP candidates has not even announced his candidacy yet. Thompson is supposed to finally come out tomorrow -- which means that he will miss the Republican debate in New Hampshire tonight. He is however airing an ad on Fox News all day today, with the full version of the ad to air on the O'Reilly show a few minutes only before the debate is set to start. You can watch the video here.
The big question of the next few weeks is going to be what this means for the Republican race. Thompson reminds many observers of Wesley Clark in '04. He was pushed in the race by people who thought their party's field was weak; he was surrounded with intense speculation starting in the spring, but chose to stay put until the fall, leading many to question whether he had passed his window of opportunity; and he finally entered the race when voters were already started to commit to other candidates and feel more comfortable with Dean, thereby reducing the Clark campaign's rationale. Thompson appears to have the same problems at this point: Why did not enter sooner? At this point, many conservatives feel more comfortable with Romney than they did at the beginning of the summer, and Giuiliani has spent a few more months on top, with the advantages front-runner status brings you.
Romney is also attempting to step up his campaign, by airing a new ad set to air in South Carolina. Why is this significant? Romney is now favored to win the first three states (IA, NH and MI) but he has not been able to take-off in South Carolina. His mormonism seems to be drowning him there. Romney's calculations was probably that Southern conservative voters would also be uncomfortable with Giuliani, but Thompson's entrance changes the dynamic by making him the natural candidate in Southern states. So Romney needs to build some support in SC soon, and this is start of that effort.
On the Democratic side, both the Clinton and Obama campaigns have news ads out -- and they are both called "Change!" In Clinton's ad, the campaign remains on message: Hillary can bring change and has experience: If we have the conviction, she has the experience. If we’re ready for change, she’s ready to lead." And Obama's implicitely accuses Clinton of being too much in the establishment, and thus of not bringing enough change: "It wasn't to score points with the powers in Washington. It was because Barack Obama wants government to work for people." It is very interesting to see Clinton go after the "change" argument as well, since that is supposed to be Obama's strong point. She is clearly trying to neutralize one of the main attacks Obama (and Edwards) will likely soon aim at her - that she is not enough of a change agent.
Aside from ads, a hot story this morning concerns Obama and Oprah Winfrey! The Washington Post reports that Oprah is set to take a much bigger role in the Obama campaign. Until now, she had been "merely" voicing her support for Obama. But it could all soon become much bigger:
On Saturday, Winfrey will host her first-ever presidential fundraising affair on the grounds of the Promised Land, her 42-acre ocean- and mountain-view estate in Montecito, Calif. -- an event that is expected to raise more than $3 million for Obama's campaign... The idea of her appearing in television ads and other appeals is very much in play... Winfrey said in an audio Web chat last week that, this year, the Obamas will be her only political guests.
Finally, an Edwards campaign memo obtained by the Boston Globe proves once again that Edwards is going to use the electability argument in the current months. He believes he is the most electable Democrat, and he plans to tell that to voters:
The memo, written by Global Strategy Group and released to the Globe from the Edwards campaign suggests that the New Hampshire voters are receptive to an anti-Republican message given that they handed Republicans their worst defeat in state history in last year's mid-term elections. This anti-Republican sentiment means these voters want someone electable. And state by state Rasmussen poling shows that Edwards is the most electable candidate.
The past few weeks have shown this is going to be one of Edwards's main messages. Elizabeth Edwards said about the same thing two weeks ago when she accused Clinton of being too divisive. This perception is clearly Hillary's biggest hurdle in the primary, and with Obama and Edwards voicing the same message against her, it might actually stick.
posted by Taniel at
10:51 AM
1 Comments:
Oprah's interest in Obama intrigues me more than anything else. To me, it's obvious why she's doing this - she's had a long time belief in promoting black people when she can. I don't mean this in a bad way; rather, her experience rising from the first black woman newscaster to the most important woman in America has given her the ability to make change when she wants, such as in her promotion of literacy in the 1990s and her excitement over Toni Morrison's admittedly excellent novels.
But while her support can only be beneficial for Obama (after all, who doesn't want the help of the most loved and respected person in the country?), it can only be dangerous for Oprah. After all, while she expresses her belief in problems with society, she rarely if ever endorses any political party or candidate. If she were to come out for Obama, she would be portrayed as simply another pawn in the political game, and this is problematic if she wants to retain her stature in the TV world. While I think that she will convince a lot of people to vote for Obama simply because of her support for him, she will hurt her rankings, which is surprisingly compromising for a woman who clearly has a strong interest in advertising revenue.
All that said, Oprah's support would be far more helpful if Obama made it to the general election, when Oprah's large mass of typically-conservative-voting viewers might be convinced to change their minds. I'm not sure many Democratic primary voters will care that much.
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Anonymous, At
05 September, 2007 15:49
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