Shocking Development in Idaho

We thought the Larry Craig scandal was over, and that the senator's resignation last Saturday had buried the story and pretty much ensured that the GOP would keep the seat in next year's elections. Well, think again. Tonight comes news that Craig is reconsidering his resignation.

It all started on the Sunday morning political shows, where Arlen Specter pointed out that Craig had said he was intending to resign, and not that he was resigning. He then actually defended Craig, breaking with most Republican leaders:

I´d still like to see Sen. Craig fight this case. He left himself some daylight when he said he ´intends´ to resign in 30 days. I´d like to see Larry Craig go back to court, seek to withdraw his guilty plea and fight the case. I've had some experience in these kinds of matters since my days as Philadelphia district attorney, and with the evidence, Sen. Craig wouldn't be convicted of anything.

Most people took Specter's comments as semantics, but news today that Specter had called Craig last week to tell him he was willing to help changes everything. The always quotable Idaho Statesman got its hands on a voicemail Craig left on the wrong machine (could this story get any weirder?):

Arlen Specter is now willing to come out in my defense, arguing that it appears by all that he knows that I have been railroaded and all that. Having all of that, we have reshaped my statement a little bit to say it is my intent to resign on Sept. 30.

And so the story goes on. Craig's new lawyer now intends to take back the guilty plea, and go to trial. This was Craig's best option to start with, and he gave it up in the vain hope his arrest would not go public. As I wrote last week, the charges against Craig were very weak, and the police report was full of holes. So Craig's new plan is to try to make this all go away in court, and if he succeeds, he will not resign from the Senate... and presumably run for re-election next year!

This would put Republicans in a bind. Their defense for why they piled on Craig and not on Vitter is that Craig has actually plead guilty. But if Craig succeeds to be deemed non guilty, what would the Republican leadership do? If they still press for his resignation, or help a primary challenge, won't they have to do the same against Vitter, or will they abandon all pretense and engage in open homophobia?

And for Democrats, this is obviously great news. As reported in my Senate Rankings, the only way for Democrats to make this race competitive is for Craig for run again, as an open seat would favor Republicans dramatically. But if the GOP gets buried in a divisive and very very ugly primary contest, look for Democratic former Rep. LaRocco to actually become a serious contender.

Update

Withdrawing a guilty plea might not be so simple after all. From CNN's Jeffrey Toobin:

He can make a motion to withdraw his guilty plea. … Under Minnesota law, there — as I understand it, there are only two grounds on which you can have a guilty plea withdrawn. One is coercion, that you were forced somehow to plead guilty. The other is incompetence, that you didn't understand what you were doing, you didn't understand English, you were under mental illness. I certainly don't believe that Craig's situation falls within either of those.