Florida leans slightly Democratic, and Edwards's electability argument grows more precarious by the day

Quinnipiac just came out with a new poll from Florida:

• In what is always deemed the marquee matchup, Giuliani and Clinton are tied at 44%.
• But Giuliani crushes Obama by 9 points (47-38) and beats Edwards 46-42.
• Clinton wins all three of her other matchups: by 5 against McCain, by 6 against Thompson and by 10 against Romney.
• Edwards also beats the three other Republicans. He wins against McCain by 3, against Thompson by 8 and against Romney by 14.
• Obama loses against McCain by 3, and barely prevails against Thompson (43-39). His lead against Romney is more comfortable (44-36). As always, we have to keep in mind that Romney's name ID is the lowest of all major candidates.

Add to this yesterday's CNN poll that had Clinton faring better nationally against Republicans than Obama and Edwards. Add the Pennsylvania poll from last week. Finish it off with Quinnipiac's last Ohio installment, and you get the point: There is no way to respond to the electability question at the moment. There is extremely little evidence that Clinton is too divisive to win the general election. Actually, polls out these past 2-3 weeks tend to show Clinton faring much better than Obama, and marginally better than Edwards. This Florida poll is an example of that.

But Edwards is undaunted. He believes that electability is Clinton's main weakness in the primary, and he keeps pushing his argument. His campaign sent out an email today making the classic anti-Clinton two-fold argument:

1. Clinton is too divisive to pick-up red states, whereas I can realign the electoral map and conduct a true 50-state strategy.
2. Clinton would hurt Democrat in down-ballot races by increasing Republican energy and turn-out.

From Edwards's email, which is signed by state legislators from purple or red states:

Democrats in Texas and across the country know that next year could be more than just an election year—it could be the year when a fundamental realignment takes place, from state houses to the White House. That's why we're pleased to announce that today, John Edwards is launching the "Expand the Map" online campaign... Help Democrats nominate the one candidate that Democrats in Texas—and red and blue states like ours all across the country—know will help sweep Democrats across the country to victory in 2008.
As leaders of our respective legislative chambers, no one knows the effect of the top-of-the-ticket candidate on state legislative races better than us, no one. The difference between winning or losing control of legislative chambers in many states will be greatly influenced by who is the nominee for the general election. We believe that we have the best chance, in some areas, the only chance, of ensuring Democratic control throughout this country with John Edwards leading the charge for Democrats next fall. That's because John Edwards is committed to a 50 state strategy. Results like those in Texas show his strength in rural red states, and he is already focusing on intermountain states like Utah and Montana... But it will only happen if we put a true fighter at the top of the ticket—one who will strengthen the hands of Democrats running in red states as well as blue.

The problem is, of course, that there is no evidence of what Edwards is saying. Clinton was even found leading in Virginia yesterday!

The primary numbers from the Quinnipiac poll are also worth mentioning:

• On the Democratic side, Clinton wins by a massive 42% to 13% for Obama, confirming that she can count on Florida to salvage her campaign if things go wrong in early states. And this regardless of the early-state pledge.
• The Republican side is much closer: Giuliani's 28% places him ahead of Thompson at 17% and Romney at 11%. In other words, Giuliani is certainly not protected from sliding down if (as seems likely) things go badly in the early states.
• Apparently eager to do to Florida what he did to Iowa and New Hampshire, Romney has started running his first ad in Florida.