More polls out today

The LA Times polled the three early states today. The verdict: Clinton leads, and the GOP race is in flux.

• Iowa: Clinton leads 28%, with 23% for Edwards and 19% for Obama. In the Republican field, Romney leads 28% to Giuliani's and Thompson's 16%. Huckabee has 8%.
  
• New Hampshire: Clinton leads with 35%, with Obama and Edwards at 16%. Romney has a smaller lead than usual: 28% to Giuliani's 23% and McCain's 12%.
  
• South Carolina: Clinton surprisingly crushes the field, with 45%. Obama is at 27% and Edwards is far behind at 7%. Thompson has a miniscule lead, 26% to 23%, with McCain at 15% and Romney, weak as usual, at 9%.

Quick analysis:

• These three states are by far Clinton's weakest, especially Iowa. This shows in the results, as Clinton's lead is the smallest there. But if she maintains herself at that level in Iowa, she will become virtually unbeatable. South Carolina is also supposed to be a big test for Clinton. The LA Times does not provide internal numbers, but Clinton is presumably handely beating Obama among black voters to have such a big lead.
  
• Democrats in all three states find Clinton the most electable candidate, showing Obama and Edwards will have a long way to go to convince voters that Clinton is too divisive to be elected.
• These are not great results for Romney. He is holding his Iowa and New Hampshire leads, but he does not seem that secure in them. The most important state for him is Iowa, naturally. A victory there could put him back up in NH.
• Thompson's strenght is evident: He is leading in SC, and could very well stay strong there since Romney is not a big factor in the state. And he could very well overtake Giuliani in other states too.

The Thompson bounce we talked about yesterday was confirmed by today's CNN national poll, in which Thompson progresses by 5 points and trails Giuliani by a single point, 28% to 27%. CNN also asked general election questions: Clinton beats Giuliani by 4 and Thompson 13, reaching the crucial threshold of 50% against both (and 55% against Thompson). Obama trails Giuliani by 4 and leads Thompson by 12 -- showing once again that there is no easy answer to the electability question.