Rasmussen polls Virginia and Minnesota, and Democrats start celebrating

Rasmussen just released some shocking polls from Virginia. Fist up, the Senate race. We are still waiting for Mark Warner to announce whether he will run for Senate in 2008 or for Governor in 2009 (he could do so as early as this Thursday). But Rasmussen confirms that Warner would start as the overwhelming favorite. More so than we even expected.

• Warner beats Rep. Tom Davis 57% to 30%.
• Warner beats former Governor Gilmore 54% to 34%.

Remember, this is Virginia we are talking about. And Gilmore and Davis are well-known figures. Gilmore especially was a former Governor, thus has had the same platform as Mark Warner. Rasmussen also showed that Gimore and Warner have roughly the same name-recognition, while Davis is behind on that question. Thus the name-ID cannot account for Warner's lead. What can? Well, Warner is viewed favorably by 68% of state voters, while Gilmore's rating is only 49%. Voters are evidently still very fond of Warner... and that is about to translate itself in a Democratic pick-up.

The results of the VA presidential poll are as dramatic:

• Clinton leads against Giuliani 44% to 41%.
• Clinton leads against Thompson 46% to 44%
• Clinton leads against Romney 44% to 40%

No Democrat has won Virginia since 1964, and the conventional wisdom asserts that Clinton is the least prepared of all Democrats to carry a single red state and that her candidacy would hurt down-the-ballot candidates (like Mark Warner). Well, Rasmussen is proving the conventional wisdom wrong. Is this just a function of Virginia turning blue, or is it a reflection on current Democratic strength? Even if Democrats don't end up winning Virginia, merely putting it in play would force the GOP to waste time, energy and money it would rather spend in Florida and Ohio.

On to Minnesota, one of the closest swing states in the 2004 elections, as it barely went for Kerry. 2008 might be different, as Clinton crushes her rivals: Posting a great 57% favorability rating, she wins against Thompson 51-40, against Giuliani 50-37 and against Romney 52-34.

The Senate numbers from Minnesota are not as amazing for Dems, but they are still good news. Sen. Coleman leads comedian Al Franken 46% to 41%, and beats Ciresi 46% to 42%. The golden rule is that an incumbent Senator below 50% this much before the election is in deep trouble, especially when he inches out little-known competitors like Ciresi by 4% only. Minnesota will clearly go down the wire, and be a top opportunity for Democrats. Al Franken winning the nomination would add some unpredictability to the race, but he clearly is very competitive as well.

Finally, Rasmussen came out with a presidential poll from Massachusetts. Not the most interesting of states, yes, but remember that Romney was the state's governor. But that is providing him no help whatsoever. He has a 43% favorability rating (Clinton is at 65%) and is being crushed by all Democrats:

• Romney trails Clinton by 26 (60-34), Edwards by 21 (54-33) and Obama by 18 (54-36).
• Clinton also destroys Giuliani 58% to 33% and even more so Thompson, 61-27.