Campaign picking up: Club for Growth attacks, and Rasmussen polls

Club for Growth has been going after Mike Huckabee for weeks now, even before his phenomenal November surge started. Pat Toomey its president had written a very vitriolic diatribe against Huckabee in late October in the National Review. And then they started running Iowa ads blasting Huckabee when he started to surge.

They have now increased their ad buy by $175,000 which can buy a significant amount of air time in Iowa, for this ad (YouTube link, so watch it there). So Iowans can now expect to see it even more. The ad showcases a Huckabee press conference in which the then-Arkansas Governor implores the Democratic legislature of sending him any kind of tax hike (and he launches in a big list).

I'm unclear as to why Club for Growth is not choosing to run another ad since there is surely plenty of material they can use; how useful can the same ad in three week rotation be after all? Especially when Huckabee's numbers haven't moved that much over the past month. Clearly, the angle of attack is one that can hurt Huckabee greatly given how important taxes are to the Republican base; and Huckabee is taking a huge risk by going all out in the populist direction -- though he clearly thinks the benefits could be significant.

• Rasmussen releases state polls: NC, IL, MI

Rasmussen comes out with a bunch of state polls today from states that could prove very interesting come election day.

First up, Illinois where Barack Obama runs much better than Hillary Clinton. That is not in itself a surprise given that it is Obama's home-state, but Clinton is much weaker than she should be in a very blue state:

• Obama beats Rudy Giuliani 51% to 31%. He is ahead of Mike Huckabee 54% to 30%.
• Hilary Clinton barely comes ahead of Rudy Giuliani 46% to 40% and Mike Huckabee 45% to 41%.

Next comes North Carolina, a reliably red state that Dems failed to make any inroads in in 2004 despite Edwards's presence on the ticket. And there have been many polls to suggest that Democrats would be very competitive (for example this one taken two weeks ago), and this latest Rasmussen poll is no exception:

• Hillary leads Romney 42% to 40% and is statistically tied with Giuliani 40% to 39%. She does trail McCain 45-50 but it's Huckabee who does the best, 46-39.
• Rasmussen did not test Edwards or Obama, despite the fact that it would surely be very interesting to see whether Edwards can carry his home-state. The PPP poll I linked to above has him leading Republicans.

Having Illinois and North Carolina as tight purple states would naturally be a huge expansion of the map on both parts in 2008. Michigan looks more solidly anchored blue in the Rasmussen poll, though it is clear that the Democratic nominee will have to fight for it just as Gore and Kerry had to in the past 2 cycles:

• Clinton leads both Huckabee and Giuliani 45% to 36%. It is Romney who comes the closest in the state of which his father was Governor, trailing 45% to 39%.
• Barack Obama leads Giuliani 46% to 38% and Huckabee 46% to 37%.

Remember when seeing these numbers that Michigan has a GOP primary on January 15th, and that Romney's natural edge in the state that this poll confirms could definitely help him here (though it will probably not do so if he can't carry Iowa or New Hampshire).

Rasmussen comes out with flurry of state polls

We brought you the Rasmussen poll from North Carolina this morning that had Hillary Clinton tied with Republicans in a traditionally safe GOP state. Since then, Rasmussen has released three other state general election polls that have mixed news for Democrats.

In Illinois, the Democrats have seen better days. The poll matched up Barack Obama and Clinton against the top Republicans:

• Obama has no trouble in his home-state. He leads Giuliani 56-34 and Thompson 57-32.
• Clinton, on the other hand, is ahead by only 3% against Giuliani: 45-42, within the margin of error. She leads Thompson by a more decent 47-40%.
  

Illinois is certainly a must-win state for Democrats. The difference between Obama and Clinton is certainly explained by the fact that this is Obama's home-state: Obama's favorable rating here is much higher than his national average 66%, while Clinton's is pretty much what it is nationally at 53%.

In Ohio, the numbers are plainly disappointing. Ohio is supposed to be ripe for pick-up and very much down on Republicans. But poll after poll of Ohio show that is has shifted blue much less than other swing states. Republicans are now typically running better here than in Missouri or even Virginia. Any lead is always within the margin of error, but that alone has to be frustrating for Democrats. In this poll:

• John McCain and Rudy Giuliani both have small leads against Hillary, respectively 44-42 and 45-43.
  
• Clinton and Fred Thompson are tied at 44%.
• Hillary leads Mitt Romney 46% to 39%.

Clinton was basically similarly tied with all GOPers in last week's SUSA poll. In Quinnipiac's, however, she has comfortable leads against all Republicans.

In Michigan's poll, finally, Clinton finally gets great news as she leaves no hope to the Republicans:

• She beats Rudy 48% to 39% and beats Thompson 50% to 37%.
• Rasmussen's article says that Clinton beats McCain and Romney by 7, but does not provide any numbers.
• More revealing, Clinton's favorable rating here is 54%, higher than any Republicans. So much for all the electability talk.

Michigan is definitely a must-win state for Democrats, but it has been competitive in both 2000 and 2004. Kerry had to sweat it out here and only won by a few points. It would be great for Dems if Clinton can put it away early and make sure Republicans don't try to compete.