As Clinton plays up gas tax issue, superdelegates show discontent

Hillary Clinton better have evidence that the gas tax issue is a political winner among May 6th voters because her increasingly harsh rhetoric on the issue is creating trouble for her among the audience she needs even more than Indiana and North Carolina voters -- superdelegates.

Clinton first expressed her interest in repealing the gas tax for the summer when McCain put the idea forward, but she has now become a full-fledged advocate of the measure. And in a sure sign that she feels that the gas tax holiday is a political jewel, she is now expanding the debate beyond her battle against Obama. Her campaign announced today that she is planning on introducing legislation to implement a gas tax holiday. Clinton used very strong language to describe her rationale:

I believe it is important to get every member of Congress on the record. Do they stand with hard pressed Americans who are trying to pay their gas bills at the gas station or do they once again stand with the big oil companies. That's a vote I'm going to try to get, because I want to know where they stand and I want them to tell us - are they with us or against us?

What is particularly amusing to me is that this is practically the message Howard Dean and Nancy Pelosi have been relaying... about superdelegates needing to choose between Obama and Clinton. Take out the second sentence specifying that Clinton is talking about the gas tax and she might as well be asking congressmen to announce for whom they will be voting at the convention. More seriously, that last sentence has predictably provoking something of a stir, as some are accusing Clinton of using Bush-ist terminology.

If the legislation arrived on the floor of the Senate or of the House, it would put many Democratic congressmen in a difficult situation. Most -- starting with Nancy Pelosi and Barack Obama -- are opposed to this idea; but, as Clinton's insistence on pursuing it confirms, it is politically-speaking tough for vulnerable Democrats to vote against the gas tax holiday without opening themselves up to harsh attacks in their re-election races.

Clinton is thus risking alienating some uncommitted superdelegates by pushing her argument, airing new ads and introducing legislation. Colorado Representative, Senate candidate and undecided superdelegate Mark Udall blasted Clinton this afternoon in a strongly-worded press release that echoes many of the themes put forward by the Obama campaign (a clear indication that Clinton might be losing Udall's vote):

Senator Clinton claimed yesterday that I either stand with her on this proposal or stand with the oil companies. To that I say: I stand with the families of Colorado, who aren’t looking for bumper sticker fixes that don’t fix anything, but for meaningful change that brings real relief and a new direction for our energy policy. We can’t afford more Washington-style pandering while families keep getting squeezed.

It is exactly the kind of short-sighted Washington game that keeps us from getting real results to our energy problem. Experts across the ideological spectrum agree that it will increase the deficit, drain money away from Colorado roads and bridges, and hurt the environment, all without actually making prices lower for drivers.

To recap, Clinton is thus pursuing an argument that is (1) denounced with rare unanimity by the media, (2) upper-middle-class voters even further away from her, (3) at odds with the position of most Democratic leaders and (4) has the potential to alienate uncommitted superdelegates -- the very audience Clinton needs to stay put if she wants to prevent Obama from clinching the nomination.

Yet, knowing all of this, the Clinton campaign is continuing to pounce the issue; tonight, she started running running her second ad in Indiana attacking Obama for opposing the tax holiday (you can watch it here). It accuses Obama of dismissing the savings as "pennies" (with the implication that Obama cannot understand the plight of the working-class, a charge that ties back to the elitism theme) and heralds Clinton's plan to make Big Oil pay for the rising prices.

The Clinton campaign is evidently concentrating on blue-collar and middle-class voters, the groups that Obama is the weakest among. Clinton knows that her only path to the nomination is to instill doubt that Obama has the capacity to win the general election, and she will not be able to do so without increasing her lead among these groups in North Carolina and Indiana. She handily defeated Obama among white blue-collar voters in Pennsylvania -- but the margin was the same as it was in Ohio. That is good enough to win Clinton the primary, but not enough to convince superdelegates that Obama is too damaged by incidents like Wright and bittergate to beat McCain.

By the end of February, in Wisconsin and the Potomac region, Clinton's advantage among these groups of voters had eroded; but she recaptured her clear edge in the run-up to March 4th when Obama was damaged by the controversy surrounding NAFTA. Two months later, Clinton hopes another economic issue powers her through May 6th. Only then will she worry about superdelegates -- if it is not too late.