2.19.2008

Feb. 19th resuts thread: McCain, Obama win Wisconsin

3am: Hawaii looks set to go for Obama, who leads his former home-state 74% to 26% with 26% of the vote reporting. Hawaii awards 20 delegates, so this could end sinking Clinton even more in the delegate count (if the district breakdown holds as it is now, the delegate attribution should be 14-6).

1:30am: With 97% of precincts reporting in Wisconsin, Obama leads 58% to 41%, with a 38 to 27 delegate lead. 9 more have to be allocated. Clinton has not fallen as far behind here as in some of the previous contests, but given how far she is already she really could not afford even this margin.
Results from Hawaii have not yet started coming in, and the Washington primary is still within 3% (with Obama narrowly up) with 56% reporting.

11:55pm: With 45% reporting in Washington, Obama is now ahead 50% to 46% (stil much closer than the caucuses were) and McCain is way ahead, 48% to 21% (he also runs much better than he did in the caucuses).
Meanwhile, the delegate allocation in Wisconsin has been updated to 31-22, with 21 still outstanding.

11:30pm: John McCain called the winner in Washington, where he should get once again a huge share of delegates. But the Democratic race appears surprisingly tight! With 25% of the vote in (and more than 200,000 ballots counted), Hillary is actually ahead 49% to 47% (keep in mind that she lost the state's caucuses by 36% 10 days ago). Unfortunately for her, there are no delegates at stake here for Dems.

11pm: The polls have closed in Washington, though it does not look like the Democratic results will be easy to find, nor that an exit poll has been conducted for Republicans (though 19 delegates are at stake).
In Wisconsin, Obama is leading 57% to 42% with 72% reporting, a large margin that definitely exceeds expectations. The delegate count right is now 20 for Obama and 14 for Clinton, with many more obviously still outstanding. Obama's victory speech lasted about 45 minutes, much longer than usual, and Obama ended up going into more substantive points than he usually does.

9:40pm:
Clinton's speech, a preview of the new stump speech she will use starting tomorrow, drew as direct contrasts as she ever has, especially on health care. We will hear more about this speech when she gives its longer version... and she better hope we will because Obama took the stage a few minutes after Clinton had started her speech, forcing the networks to choose who to cover and leading to the very early interruption of her stump speech. Obama's camp cannot not have known what it was doing here; I guess it's a good strategic move, but not the most gracious one. (Meanwhile, with 12% reporting, Obama is leading 55% to 44%.)

9:25pm: Wisconsin is called for Obama
, as exit polls had been suggesting for a few hours now. The question now is how big his victory is, and how big of a hit she will take in the delegate count.

9:15pm:
The third wave of exit polls is now out and Obama is ahead about 55% to 44% (The numbers that were circulating at 6pm suggested a bigger lead, and I did not mention the exact numbers since second wave polls are rarely that correct; so let's all calm down in the comments here). Clinton kept a very narrow lead among women, 51-48. Obama crushes her among men, 66% to 32%. That's a 37% gender gap. But Obama has a comfortable lead among lower-income voters, leading 53% to 46% among families with income of less than $50,000. The two candidates are tied among those with no college education. Among registered Dems (63%), Obama gets 51% to Clinton's 48%. Among Republicans (9%), Obama is ahead 70% to 30%. And among independents, it's 62% to 34%.

9pm:
Polls close in Wisconsin, and John McCain is (unsurprisingly) called the winner. On the Democratic side, no call yet, though Wolf Blitzer evokes an exit poll lead for Obama.

6:30pm
: The second wave of exit polls from Wisconsin has been leaked, and it shows a huge Obama lead (much more than double-digits). Now remember, this is a second wave exit polls, leaked 3 hours before the polls close, so the results could look very different. I don't think I have to remind many of you of what the second wave exit polls were showing on February 5th (Clinton barely up in California, a tie in Massachusetts, with Obama up by more than he ended up being in places like Missouri and Connecticut).

So take these numbers with great caution until we get the last wave of exits in a few hours, but it's hard to not point out that for now the numbers look very bad for Hillary. For one, the electorate is described as "less affluent" than in previous primaries, which could mean that Obama has struck at the core of Clinton's base (right now he is very narrowly leading among women and families with income under $50,000; as a comparison point, Clinton won that group by 6% even in CT, a state she lost handily).

Original post: Here is this cycle's eleventh results thread: Wisconsin, Hawaii and Washington will be going to the polls, and the first results will not come until 9pm ET. Turnout has been described as "steady" in Wisconsin, with the cold and snowy weather not helping push voters to the poll. In fact, turnout is reported at different rates in different regions of the state, which could possibly influence the results.

For now, here are some guidelines of what to watch for tonight.

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13 Comments:

  • dc - your the idiot. Taniel has provided information and the cavets. So what is your problem?

    By Anonymous Guy, At 19 February, 2008 20:40  

  • for all the spin of a "HUGE" obama win, they can't even make a projection. so it's probably within 15%. and who's the one who's boasting "MUCH more than double digits" ??????

    By Anonymous Anonymous, At 19 February, 2008 21:08  

  • "Obama's camp cannot not have known what it was doing here; I guess it's a good strategic move, but not the most gracious one."

    Gracious? Please - how gracious were Clinton and her Hessians when they rolled out their plagiarism charge, only to have to beat a hasty retreat, with Clinton now claiming that it was all the doing of the press? He's swimming with sharks, and he owes her and her cronies zero consideration at this point.

    By Anonymous zoot, At 19 February, 2008 21:56  

  • I would agree it might not be gracious if Clinton were making a concession speech, but she is not even talking about the WI race-- just trying out her new stump speech. No reason Obama has to wait for the end of that.

    Zoot also makes a good point which i won't repeat.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, At 19 February, 2008 22:25  

  • Obama was correct to start his speach before she finished her new stump speach. She didn't even mention WI, let alone congratulate Obama. He showed good political skills at cutting her off so quick. Nobody wanted to listen to Hillary drone on and on.

    By Anonymous stone621, At 19 February, 2008 22:48  

  • I'm for Hillary and I'm a strong Democrat and I'm in a swing state. But the more I hear Obama's obnoxious supporters speak, I'm more inclined to vote McCain if Obama is the nominee.

    He was rude tonight - just as he has been to her many times before. He maybe chock full of hope and cheerful happiness during his speeches but his mannerisms towards her have been a far cry from gentlemanly this whole campaign.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, At 19 February, 2008 23:10  

  • The Democratic results for the Washington State primary are here - it looks like Hillary is winning so far:

    http://vote.wa.gov/elections/wei/results.aspx

    By Anonymous Anonymous, At 19 February, 2008 23:17  

  • Oh and CNN is projecting that John McCain has won the Washington State primary:

    http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#WA

    By Anonymous Anonymous, At 19 February, 2008 23:19  

  • Obama is running the identical campaign that Deval Patrick ran in MA in 2006. Look at Patrick's poll numbers today--they're sinking fast.

    The voters of MA bought the "change" meme then, and they've got buyer's remorse now. They have a governor who was all talk and no action. He hasn't passed any major legislation to support the promises he made the MA voters in 2006 and now he spends a lot of his time on the campaign trail with his buddy Barack.

    You Obamapods can hope all you want, but I can't wait to see what happens in the GE [McCain will make mincemeat out of him when it comes to national security]. Remember in the GE, everybody is voting, not just latte liberals and cross over Republicans who became Democrats for a day. How many of those who voted in WI were Repugs encouraged by their local party to vote for Obama because McCain had it locked up??? They're doing the same thing in TX! How many Independents did the same in the various Dem primaries and caucuses??

    Obama hasn't been tested in the MSM--they've loved him so far, but they adore McCain. They hate Hillary with a passion, so Obama was a convenient tool to wipe her out. They'll rip him apart because they don't need him anymore. Aren't you all a bit tired of the MSM destroying our better candidates [Gore, Kerry, etc.]???

    Don't be too cocky, Obamapods. This election was robbed from the Dems by the Repugs and you all will be crying in the fall and we Hillaryites will be there to tell you [like the MA voters already have about Deval] WE TOLD YOU SO over, and over, and over again.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, At 19 February, 2008 23:21  

  • If Hillary loses again on the March 4th primaries, she should just bow out gracefully while she still can. If she stubbornly vows to fight on she will only disgrace herself even more. It was rude of her not to congradulate Obama on his WI win. That is the reason he cut off her new stump speach, and took the cameras away from her. She deserved that. She set herself up for that. All you people threatening to vote for McCain because of perceived slights to Hillary, well, just go ahead. It's a free country, as they say.

    By Anonymous stone621, At 20 February, 2008 00:52  

  • not to give with a non sequitur, but why is michelle obama's pregnancy not being reported? why was it at the tail end of for heaven's sake a side story to the michelle o. cover package in the most recent newsweek?

    By Anonymous Anonymous, At 20 February, 2008 00:53  

  • By the way, I have heard that republicans in WI urging their people to vote for Clinton because she will be the weaker GE candiate, so it cut both ways.

    By Anonymous stone621, At 20 February, 2008 01:00  

  • Michelle got pregnant? Damnit Bill! I knew you'd get in trouble again!

    By Anonymous Anonymous, At 20 February, 2008 16:27  

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