2.13.2008

Delegate breakdown after the Potomac primaries

This disastrous night for Hillary will have profound implications for the future of the race and, more importantly, for the delegate count. The most recent count done on Sunday night showed Barack Obama opening up a solid pledged delegate lead following his sweep of the weekend contests: 993 delegates to 935 for Hillary Clinton. After his triumphs tonight in Virginia, Maryland, and Washington, Obama is even further ahead in the pledged delegate count -- and this before most of Maryland's delegate are even allocated.

Expect a detailed analysis of the state of the Democratic race in the morning. For now, here is the delegate breakdown of the February 12th states, and how this all-important count is shaping out (this page will be updated once the MD allocation is completed):

Washington, DC: 75% Obama-24% Clinton

  • Clinton: 3 delegates
  • Obama: 12
Maryland: 60% Obama-37% Clinton

  • Clinton: 27 delegates
  • Obama: 43
Virginia: 64% Obama-35% Clinton

  • Clinton: 29 delegates
  • Obama: 54
We are also able to allocate four more delegates today from the February 5th states (full breakdown of Super Tuesday delegates available here:

  • In Illinois, one more delegate goes to Barack Obama for a 100-48 margin, with 5 outstanding.
  • In Georgia, 3 more delegates for Obama, for a 53-24 margin, with 12 still outstanding.
  • Right now, Clinton has a 822-815 edge among February 5th delegates, with 44 of them still to be allocated -- including 27 from Colorado, whose district by district totals are not available.
That brings us to the following totals of pledged delegates, including those from all the states that have already voted:

  • Clinton: 993 delegates
  • Obama: 1107
  • Outstanding: 45
This is a wide margin, much larger than it was expected to be at this point of the campaign. And very importantly, today is the first time Obama has passed Clinton in the delegate count that includes super delegates. Clinton will have to reverse this trend convincingly on March 4th.

9 Comments:

  • if the dems nominate a guy who loses the trio swing states of OH, PA, and FL, plus losing the swing vote of Latino in the primaries , they might as well fold. If u can't attract swing votes in ur own primaries, I dont see how one can win the general. Especially if he refuses to seat the Florida delegates, those floridans who got snubbed will definitely go vote for mccain .... Smart move, guys.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, At 13 February, 2008 07:05  

  • Obama did win the Latino vote in Maryland and Virginia. Lets wait and see what happens in March, but don't discount it getting tighter in OH.

    Latino's don't make up that much of the voting population since most of them are not registered or do not vote. The states Democrats need to win also don't conatin that many Latinos - IA and VA (plus their 2004 states) would be sufficient for a victory.

    By Anonymous Guy, At 13 February, 2008 07:54  

  • Worth noting here: Obama not only won each Potomac primary, but did so with over 60% of the vote.

    He's been doing that quite a bit--somewhere around ten contests or more, I think, depending on how you want to regard the caucuses where only delegate totals are reported.

    How many times has Hillary Clinton broken 60% in a contest? Exactly once--in Arkansas on Super Tuesday, where she got 70%.

    This is why Obama has accumulated a lead which may be up to a hundred in pledged delegates--and that lead will doubtless get larger as the full Maryland results are allocated and larger still, quite possibly, next week. To counteract this, Hillary Clinton needs not only to win Ohio and Texas, but to win them big--60%+ if she can, but at least 55%, which she has managed in three or four contests thus far.

    Hillary's forces may have taken comfort from the 56%-39% lead SUSA shows her with in Ohio. But that is the MINIMUM win she needs to cut significantly into Obama's pledged delegate lead. Narrow wins in Ohio and Texas (especially given Texas' hybrid primary-caucus system) may 'break the momentum' but otherwise won't do her much good.

    By OpenID sjberke, At 13 February, 2008 08:43  

  • Neither of them can win with the delegates left now. One has to quit. This is still neck and neck right to the end. I love the way Ms. Rice tried to claim Hillary was the leader this morning and that two more debates was "quite a number" he-he. Being the frontrunner is such a hot potato. One day and they don't want it anymore! We have a long stretch this few weeks,we're going to need some interesting drama. If anybody has a pool of gasoline,CNN blogs are great for dropping matches.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, At 13 February, 2008 08:54  

  • Most of the contests Obama has won over 60% in are caucuses - by no means real representation of a state's electorate as a whole or in some cases all members of a party. Take North Dakota, where he won 2-1. 20,000 people caucused in a state of 700,000. Does his large win among liberal party activists signal a shot at the state in November? Absolutely not, and I say this as a precautionary measure, but Obama's people need to realize this or they will be in for a rude awakening in November.

    I've said this before and I'll say it again - Obama has a serious problem with rural whites in swing states. Hillary absolutely slammed him in rural Missouri and Tennessee, both states we could win, and have won, with the right person. She won rural white voters in Georgia, Alabama, and Virginia. Heck, go back and look at maps from Iowa and New Hampshire - she won voters in Iowa's rural conservative west and New Hampshire's far north.

    Having large turnout at rallies in Seattle, for example, says nothing about attracting swing voters. Dems will win Seattle anyway. I believe McGovern was drawing large attendance in big cities right up until the election in '72. Once again, the point of this story is he has trouble getting swing voters and even after all this time he's still not connecting.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, At 13 February, 2008 10:55  

  • Well, I think the next three weeks will tell the story. If HRC manages to win TX and OH, then Dean will bring them both together and ask them to make nice. One will be on top and the other on the bottom. ;-)

    By Anonymous Lady Luck, At 13 February, 2008 10:58  

  • Don't rush this combo ticket too soon. We need this spectator sport attention to really galvanize our platform. The water cooler talk will be about who has the best chance of getting us universal healthcare? The republicans? Oh yeah, they don't want one. Who's plan will end this Iraq mess sooner and cheaper? McCain? Oh yeah, he wants to stay a hundred years. Well, who's got the best plan for public education? The republicans? Oh yeah, they want to eliminate the Education department and give vouchers to parents to send their kids to parochial schools and bankrupt the great equalizer. Well I don't want my taxes raised! Who works here who makes over 250g's? Mr. A,B,and C,well screw them! The rest of us get cuts! And so the script goes..

    By Anonymous Anonymous, At 13 February, 2008 11:37  

  • Let's wait and see what happens in Ohio, Texas, and Pa (if Clinton is still in the race in Apr.) Watch for those polls that will come out about Mon. and Tues. and you will see a much tighter race. In 2 weeks Obama will have the lead in those states.

    By Anonymous stone621, At 13 February, 2008 15:11  

  • Polling leads aren't always the actual vote. The tight polls will be good for the suspense.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, At 13 February, 2008 20:04  

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