Surveying the New Hampshire polls: 5 new surveys today only

The Iowa results are starting to sink in voter consciousness at this point, and the tracking polls are now nearly all taken post-Iowa (though not entirely, as we will see). Four new polls out today have good news for Barack Obama, though Clinton is far from out of the race; and on the GOP side, things are looking to tighten up again in Romney's favor. Naturally, all of these polls released throughout the day were taken prior to yesterday's debates, so any effect those might have had are obviously not incorporated here.

Let's start with the poll of polls, the CNN/WMUR/UNH survey. And it exemplifies more than anything just how wounded Clinton is right now:

  • Yesterday, CNN/WMUR had Clinton and Obama tied at 33%. 24 hours later and a new round of interviews later, Obama is up 39% to 29%, with Edwards at 16% (all polls suggest Clinton is losing no ground to Edwards, which has got to reassure her). That is some major movement, as the pollsters are adding that Obama is gaining three points a day -- numbers that are confirmed by the other polls listed below.
  • Among Republicans, McCain is at 32% and Romney at 26% in Huckabee at 14% and Giuliani at 11%. The only movement is between Huck and Rudy who have inverted their position.
Second, we have Zogby's tracking poll. It is a four-day survey so at this point only 50% has been taken post-Iowa, but the trendlines are clear:

  • Among Democrats, Clinton is only ahead 31% to 30% today, with Edwards at 20%. There was a 4% gap yesterday and a 6% gap two days ago. Zogby adds that there is very clear movement in Obama's favor, so expect Barack to take the lead here tomorrow.
  • But the Republican race has Iowa's second-place, Mitt Romney, take the lead for the first time by a tiny 32% to 31%. Huckabee is at 12% and Giuliani at 7%.
Next is the Suffolk tracking which is a two-day poll so this is the first time all the sample was tested post-Iowa. And Clinton's lead has entirely melted -- but it is still there:

  • Clinton is up 35% to 33% to Edwards's 14%. Yesterday, she had a 7% lead -- and it was 17% three days ago, a huge decline but it is remarkable that she maintains herself ahead. Suffolk is consistently showing Clinton a few points better than her average in other polls, by the way. Do they have another methodology for tracking independents?
  • In the GOP race, Mitt Romney is still up 30% to 27% with Giuliani at 10%, Ron Paul at 9% and Mike Huckabee at 7%.
Continuing our survey, here is the Rasmussen survey which is also a two-day poll. I believe Rasmussen had only one-day numbers yesterday so he just added a new sample to yesterday's results:

  • Barack Obama is ahead by 12%, 39% to 27% with Edwards at 18%. Yesterday, Obama was up 10% which means his bounce got bigger on Saturday.
  • Among Republicans, the race has tightened from a 4% McCain lead to a 2% McCain lead, 32% to 30% (which means Romney had a good day Saturday, which appears to conform to all other polls out there). Huckabee and Paul were tied at 11% with Giuliani at 9%.
And last and perhaps least for once we have the Mason-Dixon/MSNBC numbers that were taken January 2nd to January 4th, which means that a significant portion of the results are way pre-Iowa at this point. So treat the numbers accordingly, as Clinton is slightly ahead 33% to 31% but the pollsters are saying that Obama got an 8-point lead in the last day of polling alone. Given how small that sample is by itself, that information is not very useful. And among Republicans, it's McCain ahead 32% to 24%. Given that the tracking polls have shown a Romney comeback since Thursday, take those numbers with a grain of salt as well.

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