More Senate news: Colorado, Louisiana and anti-war ads

• Udall v. Shaffer

Could it be that the conventional wisdom on the Colorado Senate race is just wrong? Most people see this open seat not only as a top pick-up opportunity for Democrats, but also as the Democrats' to lose. The first poll out tells a slightly different story: Udall leads Shaffer 45% to 40%, which dispels any notion that the Republicans are being blown out of the water and will find it impossible to play effective defense. Why that might not have been a very realistic impression in the first place, the way the open governor's race had played out in 2006 (Democrat Ritter was almost looked at as an underdog but quickly appeared to have a double-digit lead and never looked back until Election Day) led many to believe the same thing would happen here. For now, Shaffer does appear like he could make this race competitive. Adding to the intrigue, the poll also asked how people would vote in a three-way race with a Green candidate. Udall's lead then goes down to 2, with the Green taking 7% of the vote, an impressive score (the Green Party is strongest in the Southwest). All of this does not prevent some liberal Colorado blogs from claiming victory.

One huge caveat: The poll was commissioned by the Shaffer campaign, and thus counts as an "internal poll." This almost always adds a few points to that candidate's showing. Despite the buzz that this poll has created on CO blogs, any further reassessment of the race should wait for non-partisan polls.

• Anti-war ads

A new ad sponsored by Americans Against Escalation in Iraq, a coalition of anti-war groups has been airing in four states with vulnerable Republican Senators up for re-election in 2008. The ad is targeting Sens. McConnell (KY), Collins (ME), Coleman (MN), and Domenici (NM) to pressure them to oppose war efforts in the coming Senate debate on Iraq. The coalition is said to be spending 13 million dollars on this effort by the end of September. The version of the ad running in Kentucky can be seen here.

• Kennedy preparing for a race?

Newly-turned-Republican John Kennedy is running for re-election as state Treasurer this fall. His party switch a couple of weeks ago fueled speculation he was preparing to jump in the Senate race to challenge vulnerable Democratic incumbent Mary Landrieu in next fall's election. Asked by the Times-Picayune whether he would pledge to serve a full four-year term, Kennedy answered, "I've never made promises about things in the future that I can't control." He will now be able to look ahead to the Senate race though, as the filing deadline for the treasurer's race passed and Kennedy is running unnoposed.