Superdelegates endorsements coming in quicker than ever
What a day in superdelegate endorsements. Yesterday, I reported that Obama had snatched 3 superdelegates to 1 for Clinton. Since then, the pace has only accelerated with 6 superdelegates coming forward (and 5 just this morning).
At this point, the conventional wisdom regarding superdelegates is that many who are currently uncommitted are privately supporting Obama and are looking for a more opportune time to come forward, perhaps hoping that the next few weeks of contests will force Clinton out of the race without their having to do anything. Politico is thus reporting that Obama backers are confident that many of the undecided supers in Congress have already decided in Obama's favor, with Claire McCaskill leading the chorus of optimists.
Yet, how much of this is spin? Over and over again over the past few months there have been rumors that Obama was about to announce a wave of superdelegate endorsements. Those rumors have never come to pass, and that suggests that these superdelegates remain undecideds no matter who they might be supporting; after all, the Obama campaign could close the deal if they obtained a big wave of superdelegate endorsements. And this is probably the best the Clinton campaign is hoping for right now; they know their case for why Obama is unelectable is not yet convincing and that they need a more evidence (that they hope will be supplied on May 6th, in KY and WV and in the consequences of the Wright controversy) to get superdelegate to reconsider. For now, all the Clinton campaign wants is to keep superdelegates patient.
Yesterday night, speculation started building again that Obama was about to unveil a number of superdelegates today to try and change the subject away from Wright and the rough week he has been having. And this time he is actually delivering, with 3 congressional endorsements for Obama this morning alone:
As the number of uncommitted superdelegate decreases without Clinton picking up a significant number, the proportion of uncommitted supers she will need to get increases; thus, keeping the number of endorsements equal is a clear victory for Obama. And the fact that 10 superdelegates have endorsed in 48 hours suggests that Clinton is running out of time, and that many are no longer willing to be patient. Howard Dean's pleas that voters make up their mind might be convincing some to step forward, and Republican efforts to attack Obama down-the-ballot might be backfiring on Clinton if Democratic superdelegates get concerned that the prolonged primary is actually starting to hurt Obama's chances in the general.
At this point, the conventional wisdom regarding superdelegates is that many who are currently uncommitted are privately supporting Obama and are looking for a more opportune time to come forward, perhaps hoping that the next few weeks of contests will force Clinton out of the race without their having to do anything. Politico is thus reporting that Obama backers are confident that many of the undecided supers in Congress have already decided in Obama's favor, with Claire McCaskill leading the chorus of optimists.
Yet, how much of this is spin? Over and over again over the past few months there have been rumors that Obama was about to announce a wave of superdelegate endorsements. Those rumors have never come to pass, and that suggests that these superdelegates remain undecideds no matter who they might be supporting; after all, the Obama campaign could close the deal if they obtained a big wave of superdelegate endorsements. And this is probably the best the Clinton campaign is hoping for right now; they know their case for why Obama is unelectable is not yet convincing and that they need a more evidence (that they hope will be supplied on May 6th, in KY and WV and in the consequences of the Wright controversy) to get superdelegate to reconsider. For now, all the Clinton campaign wants is to keep superdelegates patient.
Yesterday night, speculation started building again that Obama was about to unveil a number of superdelegates today to try and change the subject away from Wright and the rough week he has been having. And this time he is actually delivering, with 3 congressional endorsements for Obama this morning alone:
- Rep. Baron Hill of Indiana, who gives Obama credibility among the blue-collar constituency he needs in the Hoosier state.
- Rep. Bruce Braley of Iowa, who was an Edwards supporter during the caucuses.
- Rep. Lois Capps of California.
- Bill George, the president of the Pennsylvania AFL-CIO.
- Rep. Ike Skelton of Missouri, the Chairman of the House Armed Services Committee.
- Luisette Cabanas, a superdelegate from Puerto Rico who was convinced during a trip by Chelsea Clinton.
As the number of uncommitted superdelegate decreases without Clinton picking up a significant number, the proportion of uncommitted supers she will need to get increases; thus, keeping the number of endorsements equal is a clear victory for Obama. And the fact that 10 superdelegates have endorsed in 48 hours suggests that Clinton is running out of time, and that many are no longer willing to be patient. Howard Dean's pleas that voters make up their mind might be convincing some to step forward, and Republican efforts to attack Obama down-the-ballot might be backfiring on Clinton if Democratic superdelegates get concerned that the prolonged primary is actually starting to hurt Obama's chances in the general.
Labels: Nat-Dem
posted by Taniel at
1:56 PM
15 Comments:
I think the fact that most Congressional members secretly support Obama is mostly spin. I think that with the exception of some party leaders (such as Pelosi and Cyburn) most undecided members may be LEANING towards Obama but nothing close to being actual support. And yes, it will depend on how well Clinton does in the remaining contests and how FL and MI are dealt with but a 50-50 in the remaining SDs isn't enough for Clinton win to the nominatin.
By
Anonymous, At
30 April, 2008 14:18
It looks like May 6th will be even more important because the superdelegates are starting to break - 6 out of a remaing 300 undeclared is 2% in just 24 hours. After May 6th less than 200 pledged delegates (out of 4000) are still available.
I still cannot see why Peurto Rico would get any delegates or SD's.
By
Anonymous, At
30 April, 2008 14:25
I'll repeat the arguments I've made before. It seems to me that some undeclared Obama superdelegates could conclude that it would look bad to publicly announce right after a Clinton win in PA. Representatives have constituents on both sides of this primary, and committing right after Clinton has "momentum" (which is really scheduling, since each candidate has won just about everywhere he or she was expected to win) would look like trying to end the nomination before voters have had their say.
So I wouldn't be surprised to see more Obama superdelegates come in after a win in North Carolina, especially if Indiana remains close. It would look like Obama has "momentum" (which is again more due to scheduling than anything else), and the pledged delegate lead would be even more obvious than it is now.
Still, some superdelegates may figure that by May 6 it's only another month until all the voting is over and wait it out. Another month won't destroy the party, it leaves plenty of time for the general election, and it avoids accusations of taking the decision out of voters' hands.
I think the question is when there will be enough pledged and superdelegates to effectively end it. Depending on the primary results and superdelegate commitments, it could be over before the last round of voting, even if some supers wait until all the voting is over.
By
dsimon, At
30 April, 2008 15:11
It is frankly amazing how the liberal wing of the Democratic Party is so readily committed and willing to commit political suicide. Folks it is over. I am convinced now that Obama will indeed be nominated for president. I am also convinced that there is no possible way that he can win the general election. The narrative has changed. Perhaps not because of anything he has done, but the narrative has change and now he will, for ever be the black liberal from the north. And the Republicans will run with this as only they can. Can anybody tell me when was the last time a northern liberal was elected president of the USA? Anyone, anyone? The answer is Zero, never, niente, nunca, nyet..... Funny thing is that the supper delegates were created to prevent this kind of situation in which the most liberal and insane element of the party gets to nominate an unelectable candidate. It is becoming clear that the Dems are not ready to run the country. The Republicans voters did their homework. They saw a group of misfits and, in spite of the radical lunatic right desires, nominated the less ideologically pure, but the guy that could win. Democratic voters caved in the lunatic left, the left wing bloggers, and the move.org crowd. This will be a historic lesson to the gutless leadership of the party. Only the Dems can lose an election when all the conditions are so in their favor. There will be a lot of hands wriggling out there, but seriously folks, it could not happen to a better group of self absolved, self-indulgent, and pedantic people.
By
Anonymous, At
30 April, 2008 15:42
It is frankly amazing how the liberal wing of the Democratic Party is so readily committed and willing to commit political suicide.
Where's the data? Polls have Obama and Clinton doing just about the same against McCain nationally. So it's hard to see how either candidate is "suicide"--or if one is, the other is too.
Can anybody tell me when was the last time a northern liberal was elected president of the USA?
Ah, the "northern liberal" would be Clinton, right? Senator from New York?
And on most issues, Obama has the same position as Clinton or is more conservative (e.g. health care). So it's hard to see how he's the more liberal of the two.
Might want to get the facts straight first.
By
dsimon, At
30 April, 2008 15:50
dsimon - I agree with most of what you have said but I think there is a view that the extra month from May 7th to early June is just a month of wasted time and bickering.
Obama is currently having to fight on two fronts. One against McCain and the GOP (who are pretty much silent on Clinton and attack only Obama) and the other front is against Clinton. I think sufficient SD's will realise that Obama needs to fight on only one front to be effective, he is doing well to keep standing when fighting on two fronts and to keep the polls so close. But there is a limit.
By
Anonymous, At
30 April, 2008 16:00
I think there is a view that the extra month from May 7th to early June is just a month of wasted time and bickering.
I certainly think so. I'd think that anyone who can do the math would agree.
But superdelegates will do what's in their own interests. I'd rather have them decide earlier than later, but some of them who represent states or districts may see it as beneficial to wait until the voting is over.
But perhaps enough will commit early enough to decide the nomination before then. It's all speculation at this point; I don't think anyone has the ability to back up predictions with hard evidence, since all the evidence is locked in the brains of the superdelegates who aren't talking.
By
dsimon, At
30 April, 2008 16:12
Very convenient for HRC, now she got another endorsement from L.Cabannas. Why are most Hispanics supporting this woman?? It is just beyond my comprehension. She has a record of misreppresentation, she is a fake populist, she is wealthy but prones on simple people to fund her campaign to pay rich lobbyists, she doesn't even care about the status of PR or her husband would have done something about it already, and what do the PR superdelegates do? Endorse her!! It is simply dumb! Pure old politics! Sub-servient to an old rich woman!
By
carmen63, At
30 April, 2008 16:17
We know that many supers have shown fondness for Obama, but this does not necessarily mean that they will support him. Conversely, there are supers that have not said a word - not one peep, and they may very well come out for him.
The Baron Hill endorsement of Obama surprised me a lot. I know that he introduced Clinton at a large rally just last Friday.
So, I avoid talk of supers just waiting for the moment to declare. The moment is now. State their choice and be done with it.
However, if the delegate divvying continues in this way, the two will split the supers, which is bad news for Clinton. After the last 9 races are over with, she will need about 4/5 of the remaining supers to come over the top. I am not saying it is impossible. But, if the supers continue declaring at a rate of about 4 per day, then 120 of the roughly 290 left to declare will already be declared before the last primary.And if those 120 go roughly 50-50, then that means around 60 for Clinton and around 60 for Obama. And then, numerically, there just wont be enough supers left, physically, for Clinton to close the gap. You can't get 125% out of 100%. It's just not possible.
As for the supers choice of candidate, I respect their choices, but have already written a letter to the DNC proposing that they do away with supers entirely and have perhaps 3 bonus delegates (WTA) per state.
By
Statistikhengst, At
30 April, 2008 17:22
So Clinton was a northern liberal? Now there's somebody who needs to get their facts straight. What a moron!
Again with the name-calling.
Clinton: born and raised in the Chicago area, which northern to me (it certainly is if Obama's presence there is "northern"). Went to college, law school, and worked for the Children's Defense Fund in New England. The only reason she was out of the north was because her husband became governor of Arkansas and then US President. Then she went to New York, which is northern (north-east, I believe).
And on the one issue where she and Obama can be said to have something resembling a major policy disagreement, she's more liberal.
So yes: just as northern as Obama, and more liberal than Obama.
Evidence to the contrary, instead of more name-calling?
By
dsimon, At
30 April, 2008 19:28
Answering the question instead of changing the subject again? You deserve the term. You consistently give answers that don't match the question and think you're being smart. You're not. I think the evidence shows that you are indeed a moron. That' a well known term used for decades by medical professionals to classify your level of intellectual deficiency. Sorry, it's not name-calling. Just factual classification.
By
Anonymous, At
01 May, 2008 08:03
You consistently give answers that don't match the question and think you're being smart.
No, I answered the question, which was whether Clinton was a "northern liberal." She's as northern as Obama, and on policy she's as liberal as Obama, so if the term applies to him it must also apply to her. If you think Obama is significantly more liberal, it's not unreasonable to ask you to provide facts to back it up.
But haven't provided any facts or reasons. If you can't provide evidence, then the proper thing to do is to reconsider one's position, not hold to an opinion without factual support.
By
dsimon, At
01 May, 2008 09:12
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