Poll roundup: Clinton stays ahead in Indiana, Pennsylvania

Two new primary polls today should bring some comfort to Hillary Clinton: While her Pennsylvania numbers are declining in every survey, not all polls are agreeing as to the magnitude of her plunge, leaving her hope that she is still in striking distance of a convincing result; and she also has something to look forward to after April 22nd:

• Today's Pennsylvania poll comes to us from Muhlenberg College and it shows Clinton ahead 49% to 38%. This is a 3% drop for her from the previous survey from this pollster.


• Meanwhile, a poll from Indiana finds Clinton ahead 53% to 44%. She is ahead by 21% among registered Democrats but trailing by 33% among independents.

It is naturally impossible to determine exactly what winning margin Clinton would need in Pennsylvania to keep herself alive. A double-digit victory (call it the "Ohio threshold") seems to be the minimum most people agree she needs to reach to claim any sort of momentum into the May contests; and even that size a win will probably have to be seen as a disappointment, given that she was posting a far bigger lead mid-March. But do remember that Clinton's hope of suddenly taking control no longer rest on the pledge delegate count (which she pretty much has lost) but on whatever can make superdelegates reconsider, an objective that is inherently subjective.

One last note on primary polling: SUSA announced today that it will release the first public poll of the Oregon primary next week, a welcome move that should give us an idea of what to expect in this May 20th contest. The conventional wisdom believes Obama to be massively favored here, based on (1) Clinton's general weakness in the Northwest (as evidenced by the weakness of her general election numbers there) and (2) the size of Obama's win in Washington. But I would caution against betting on a significant Barack win in Oregon for now. While it is true that Obama crushed Clinton 2:1 in Washington's caucuses, he won by a much narrower in the state's primaries (51% to 45%).

Finally, we even got a general election poll today from the state of Maine:

• Rasmussen came out with a survey showing both Democrats leading McCain, 47% to 42% for Clinton and 49% to 39% for Obama.

Rasmussen did not provide the breakdown along congressional districts, a very significant measure given that Maine is one of only two states that does not award its EVs winner-take-all. Rather, it allocates two statewide and one for each (of the two) congressional districts. Kerry and Gore both swept all of the state's electoral votes in 2000 and 2004 but given McCain's relative strength in the Northeast he could have a shot at picking-up if not the entire state at least a lone electoral vote.