4.04.2008

Poll roundup: Clinton stays ahead in Indiana, Pennsylvania

Two new primary polls today should bring some comfort to Hillary Clinton: While her Pennsylvania numbers are declining in every survey, not all polls are agreeing as to the magnitude of her plunge, leaving her hope that she is still in striking distance of a convincing result; and she also has something to look forward to after April 22nd:

  • Today's Pennsylvania poll comes to us from Muhlenberg College and it shows Clinton ahead 49% to 38%. This is a 3% drop for her from the previous survey from this pollster.

  • Meanwhile, a poll from Indiana finds Clinton ahead 53% to 44%. She is ahead by 21% among registered Democrats but trailing by 33% among independents.
It is naturally impossible to determine exactly what winning margin Clinton would need in Pennsylvania to keep herself alive. A double-digit victory (call it the "Ohio threshold") seems to be the minimum most people agree she needs to reach to claim any sort of momentum into the May contests; and even that size a win will probably have to be seen as a disappointment, given that she was posting a far bigger lead mid-March. But do remember that Clinton's hope of suddenly taking control no longer rest on the pledge delegate count (which she pretty much has lost) but on whatever can make superdelegates reconsider, an objective that is inherently subjective.

One last note on primary polling: SUSA announced today that it will release the first public poll of the Oregon primary next week, a welcome move that should give us an idea of what to expect in this May 20th contest. The conventional wisdom believes Obama to be massively favored here, based on (1) Clinton's general weakness in the Northwest (as evidenced by the weakness of her general election numbers there) and (2) the size of Obama's win in Washington. But I would caution against betting on a significant Barack win in Oregon for now. While it is true that Obama crushed Clinton 2:1 in Washington's caucuses, he won by a much narrower in the state's primaries (51% to 45%).

Finally, we even got a general election poll today from the state of Maine:

  • Rasmussen came out with a survey showing both Democrats leading McCain, 47% to 42% for Clinton and 49% to 39% for Obama.
Rasmussen did not provide the breakdown along congressional districts, a very significant measure given that Maine is one of only two states that does not award its EVs winner-take-all. Rather, it allocates two statewide and one for each (of the two) congressional districts. Kerry and Gore both swept all of the state's electoral votes in 2000 and 2004 but given McCain's relative strength in the Northeast he could have a shot at picking-up if not the entire state at least a lone electoral vote.

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14 Comments:

  • HILLARY IS GOING ALL THE WAY. OBAMA NEEDS TO STEP DOWN. WITH ALL THE HILLARY BASHING FROM THE MEDIA. THE REALITY IS YOU THE MEDIA ARE BRINGING DOWN THE DEMOCRATIC VOTE. EVERY MOMENT OF THE DAY, YOU BASH HILLARY MORE THE POOR BABY OBAMA. YOU NEED TO STOP!DOESNT MATTER, IF SHES ON A TV SHOW,SPEACHES,OR DEBATES YOU CONSTANLY PICK HER APART. HER BODY LANGUAGE, THE WAY SHE SPOKE, IF HER HEAD TILTS, IT DOESNT DO YOU JUSTICE TO CONTINUE THIS MEDIA FRENZY. ITS UNFAIR AND ITS QUIT DISCRIMINATING. APPARENTLY BLACK OBAMA CANT DO ANYTHING WRONG. BUT THEN AGAIN HOW MUCH DOES ANYONE KNOW ABOUT THE RACIST, EMPTY SUIT INDIVIDUAL. NOTHING. MAYBE YOU GUYS CAN GET SOME REAL DIRT ON HIM AGAIN AND THEN SWEEP IT UNDER THE CARPET. YOU HAVE SPENT MORE TIME TEARING APART HER PERSON, HER EXPERIENCE,HER STRENGTH, HER TAXES MY GOD!! GIVE EQUAL CRITICISM AND NEGETIVITY AND THATS HOW YOU PLAY YOUR MEDIA GAME. POOR OBAMA. YEAH RIGHT!!HE NEEDS TO STEP DOWN AS SOON AS POSSIBLE.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, At 04 April, 2008 20:11  

  • WHAT ABOUT OBAMAS TAX RETURNS. DIDNT HE GIVE UNCLE REV.WRIGHT 22,000 OR MORE TO THE CHURCH OF RACISM,HATE,GOD DAMN AMERICA ETC.
    AND HAD DEALINGS WITH REZCO.GAVE BACK DONATIONS TO FARHKAN COALITION/CONGRIGATION.HOW DO YOU GIVE THE MONEY BACK? OBAMA SAID HE GOT RID OF THE MONEY. HOW DO YOU GET "RID OF THE MONEY"? DID OBAMA THROW IT AWAY, BURN IT FLUSH IT DOWN THE TOILET? ASK HIM.BUT THEN AGAIN YOU ALL DONT FOLLOW UP ON ANYTHING WHEN COMES TO OBAMA. WELL IM JUST YOU "TYPICAL WHITE PERSON" AND I WILL ALWAYS BE A WHITE AMERICAN PERSON VOTING FOR HILLARY CLINTON.OBAMA IS A LOSER,LIAR,RACIST,MUSLUM,UNEDUCATED,IGNORANT "TYPICAL BLACK PERSON" AND HE SUPPORTS ALL OF THIS MESS HE HAS CREATED. YES HE HAS CREATED THE DIVISION BETWEEN INDIVIDUALS. HIS BELIEFS AND THE PEOPLE HE CHOOSES TO BE SUCH IMPORTANT INSPIRATIONAL HIGHER THAN THO

    By Anonymous Anonymous, At 04 April, 2008 20:20  

  • Hey dickweed - stop all the caps and stupid rants. This is a serious website discussing issues in a proper factual manner.

    Maybe Obama has had a couple of issues. You must admit Hillary (and Bill) have had many more issues - fundraisers who have been convicted of crimes (Hu etc) ot merely thought to haver committed a crime. Shady finacial dealings, not issuing tax returns. Obama has issued his 2002-2006 tax returns.

    Chill out like Bill has been told to.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, At 04 April, 2008 20:28  

  • Clinton only catches up and slightly surpasses Obama by exactly 4 pledged delegates when she wins EVERY SINGLE ONE of the last 10 contests with at least 65% (that's a 30% margin, folks!). This is her only chance to get ahead fair and square.

    Mathematically possible, statistically practically impossible.

    Poll average of 4 IN Polls:

    Clinton: 44.75%
    Obama: 43.25%
    Margin: Clinton + 1.25%

    Poll average of the last 3 of the 4 IN polls (excluding Howey-Gauge from Feb 22)- this is the more realistic look at IN this week:

    Clinton: 51.33%
    Obama: 44.33%
    Margin: Clinton + 7.0


    Poll average PA (last 8 polls)
    Clinton: 48.13
    Obama: 41.00

    Margin: Clinton + 7.13

    NC:

    Obama: 49.80%
    Clinton: 37.80%

    Margin: Obama + 12.00%

    At this rate of attrition, there is no way Clinton is going to get 30% margins in any state, and if she comes in under a 10% margin in PA and IN (and I still think it will get much, much closer in IN), this will be cancelled out by Obama's estimated 16% in NC, which means on May 5th we will have just about the same pledged delegate gap as we have today: roughly + 168 for Obama.

    And Obama still has 16 days to chip away at her lead in PA. And the polls from NC show his percentages barely budging, meaning, she is not chipping away at him in NC at all.

    She cannot win the majority of PDs, and therefore, she will probably not get the nomination.

    All of these numbers are at my Blog.

    Simple, neutral math.

    By Blogger Mark, At 05 April, 2008 03:46  

  • The exact post on my blog over these last 10 races is here.

    And it would be good to mention that poll internals for at least two polls showing Obama closing in PA show him only getting about 65% of the black vote, which is illusion. In a race this hotly contested, he is sure to pick up around 90% of the black vote - this can be statistically proven if you watch the voting progression in the black american community from IA through MS. So, Clinton's current margin is probably leaner than the averages show.

    I called two different friends in PA, one in Scranton and the other who lives between Johnstown and Somerset. Both tell me that OBAMA placards have suddenly appeared all over the place: in rich neighborhoods where they could only dream to live, in poor white neighborhoods and in poor black neighborhoods and also in traditionally republican neighborhoods. My friend from near Somerset travels 4 times a week to Pittsburgh and tells me that Obama signs have sprouted out of nowhere, especially in a couple of upscale suburbs and in very jewish suburbs (Squirrel Hill).

    They tell me that this phenomenon began about 10 days ago and is showing no sign of stopping.

    I don't live in PA and I cannot confirm these reports, but my friends are lifelong friends and I trust them.

    By Blogger Mark, At 05 April, 2008 04:16  

  • I live close to Somerset and Bedford County,PA and if you mention Obama's name to most whites around here(95%+ of the population) you'll usually hear something like "someone is goin to shoot that ni--er". But otherwise I agree with Mark about Hillary needing 60%+ from here out. It's over, and someone needs to tell her.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, At 05 April, 2008 06:26  

  • Anon 6:26 - that is sad that the white people in Bedford and Somerset counties are so racist. To threaten to shoot someone and to use racist terminology. If someone said the same about Hillary - i.e I will shoot the bitch then that would also be deplorable.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, At 05 April, 2008 07:56  

  • Sorry, Obama leads in Pledged delegates by 13% !!

    GAME OVER

    Why would Super Delegates overturn the will ofl the Democratic voters ?
    Hillary Clinton is UNELECTABLE !!
    Hillary is dishonest, unethical and corrupt
    The Republicans will annihilate her

    Obama just has to keep talking about 'pocket book' issues
    Re-focus on blue collar workers, the middle class and WOMEN
    TIME TO PIVOT, OBAMA

    YES WE CAN

    Obama '08
    Character counts
    Integrity counts

    By Anonymous Anonymous, At 05 April, 2008 10:20  

  • "Sorry, Obama leads in Pledged delegates by 13% !!"

    This statement is mathematically incorrect.

    There are many counts, but by my calculations, it is currently

    PDs to date (total) 2,732
    Obama: 1,450 (53.1%)
    Clinton: 1,282 (46.9%)
    Margin: 168 (Obama + 6.2%)

    Most are showing Obama with a lead between 158-170 PDs, depending.

    By Blogger Mark, At 05 April, 2008 10:55  

  • In spite of media and obama legions Hillary will surprise us all I believe. I have family in Pa. and I have made calls and if Obama has a following there it is small.Wright said Obama would need to distance himself if the jews found out. I dont believe many jewish people are supporting Obama today.Reg workers are upsrt with Obama tring to pretend to be one of them.It is condescending what i hear and I believe it too.I am offended for my self and my family.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, At 05 April, 2008 13:22  

  • please explain if you can why Hillary just goes along giveing her solutions,answering questions,helping ,listening to so many and never gets coverage.She was giving important speeches when Obama had to take a vacation cause things got little hot. Can you imagine if Hillary did that?She would be done. Obama has Farrakhan,Wright,Ayers,Resko,Meeks,Black Panthers,Hanoi Jane,his wife who said blacks must join in solidarity to combat white oppresion and not proud of country that gave her the life and education so many would love to have had.QuannelX chicago youth pastor for Farrakhan says "this is the time of the black mans rise and the white mans demnise" What is this????and why no one cares.??Farrakhan says Obama is the countrys salvation and the worlds??

    By Anonymous Anonymous, At 05 April, 2008 14:13  

  • If I recall, it was Easter weekend, and all the candidates took at least one day off. You may want to recheck your facts before issuing such rhetoric.

    And since he has been campaigning for 13 months straight, I would think a mini-vacation is probably the right thing.

    and playing the racist card on this sight just wont work.

    By Blogger Mark, At 05 April, 2008 19:30  

  • anon 7:56, yes it is sad how many racists are around here(western PA,westernMD,WV).The Washington Post did an article a week or so ago about a black family that was run out of Cumberland,MD by a bunch of Confederate flag waving racists.I'm a white male, almost 50 and have lived in the Appalachian area of OH,PA,MD,WV most of my life and this area is in a time warp,people here are still mad that Jim Crow laws are banned.Maybe my perspective is warped by my own personal experience, but I fear rural areas will hurt Obama in the general election,(in the electoral college) but hopefully he can attract enough new and younger votes to counter all these older white rural racsists.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, At 06 April, 2008 08:47  

  • p.s. Hillary took western MD Allegany,Garrett Co. by about 70-30 and Garret Co. is the only county in Maryland (and maybe the east coast) to vote for Goldwater!! Just to give you a flavor of the area.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, At 06 April, 2008 08:57  

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