As more ads come in, polls from upcoming primaries are all over the place

There are a lot of polls coming in today from many different primaries, and we are forced to conclude that the numbers are all over the place, particularly in Pennsylvania and Indiana where it looks like anything could happen.

Pennsylvania, first, where 3 polls this morning showed Clinton up 14, 5 and 9. Two new surveys released this afternoon show Hillary leading by single digits:

• LA Times/Bloomberg poll shows Hillary leading in Pennsylvania 46% to 41%. The survey was conducted Thursday through Monday, so partly before bittergate.

• Strategic Vision, meanwhile, finds Clinton increasing her lead by four percent in a week; she is now ahead 49% to 40%.

My analysis of the Keystone state's primary does not differ form this morning's, when I explained that it is difficult to assess what effect Obama's comments have had, but that the Clinton campaign at least has to be happy that it has stopped the bleeding and the steady plunge it went through for 2 weeks or so. This is not because Obama isn't trying, however: he is outspending Clinton 5:1 on Pennsylvania cable TV (!), which is truly a huge proportion.

Today, Obama launched his response ad (you can view it here) to the attack ad Clinton started airing yesterday centering on Obama's remarks. The response ad shows Clinton being jeered when trying to bring up an attack line against her rival, and then goes on to say that we should be looking to work on concrete problems and leave politics as usual behind. The ad is a rather typical response to an attack ad by a front-runner. Indeed, front-runners have nothing to gain from attacking back and they try to portray themselves above the fray (which is exactly what Clinton did for months in the fall when Edwards and Obama were going after her). It is also interesting that the ad never mentions what Clinton is attacking Obama on, so Obama is not using this opportunity to defend himself against criticism.

If Clinton survives Pennsylvania (and with a couple of polls today showing her on the verge of the "Ohio threshold," she is more than ever in a position to), the race will go on to North Carolina and Indiana (on May 6th). A few weeks later would come Kentucky (May 20th). We got a poll from each of these 3 races today, with good news for both candidates:

• In North Carolina, which Obama is heavily favored to win, the LA Times poll shows him leading 47% to 34%.

• In Indiana, where there is less of a defined favorite, Obama posts a 50% to 45% lead (still LA Times).

• In Kentucky, finally, SUSA finds that Clinton demolishes Obama 62% to 26%... much more than a 2:1 margin. SUSA's previous poll already had Clinton way up, 58% to 29%.

The most interesting numbers among this set is the Indiana survey. However much the primary has no clear favorite, the two only polls we have gotten from the state have shown Clinton lead. They have both been released from SUSA, and the latest, yesterday, had her leading by 16%. A conventional wisdom was starting to set in, then, that Indiana was Clinton's to lose. The LA Times reestablishes some balance in our expectations. But it is clear that Clinton needs a comfortable win here on May 6th; she will need it to offset the likely loss of North Carolina.

Finally, an interesting question in Pennsylvania is what effect the prolonged primary has on the general election; there have been a number of polls suggesting that Democrats are improving their position in the Keystone state against McCain and that their millions spent on tv are helping them in the general. Strategic Vision's poll, however, suggests the exact opposite, as this is the second week in a row that McCain is gaining. Last week, Clinton was leading by 6% and Obama trailing by 5%. In this week's poll, Obama is led 49% to 39% and Clinton trails 47% to 44%.