Post-"bitter" Pennsylvania expectations: First poll has Clinton gaining

The first poll of Pennsylvania since the story over Obama's "bitter" comments broke was released today by ARG. It was conducted April 11th to 13th, so a part of the interviews were conducted before any controversy erupted (it is unclear what proportion):

• Hillary Clinton has jumped up to a 57% to 37% lead, almost entirely due to the female vote, which she leads 64% to 31%. The other surprising numbers is how much Clinton leads by among whites, 64% to 29% -- much than we are accustomed to seeing.
  
• A week ago, Obama had pulled within a tie, at 45% -- meaning this is a 20% jump in Clinon's favor.

It is too early to suggest that Obama's plunge in ARG's new Pennsylvania poll is due to the "bitter" controversy. Remember, Clinton started to rebound in a number of polls last week (PPP, SUSA and Insider Advantage), so ARG's survey inscribes itself in their community rather than break with all preceding trends to point to a dramatic turnaround. Consider also that the poll was taken immediately following heavy coverage of the issue, the time at which there will be the most impact in polls (if there is an impact to be had at all). We will have to carefully watch the polls that will be released in the coming days.

However, and as I just mentioned, there is now plenty of polling data pointing to a Clinton rebound. The size of Clinton's surge in the ARG poll might be an outlier, but Pennsylvania numbers have been moving away from Barack in the past week. Enough for Hillary to survive April 22nd? One consequence of the "bitter" controversy is that it ups the stakes of the Pennsylvania showdown. Clinton surrogates are now openly arguing that Obama is too weak among blue-collar voters to beat McCain in the fall, and they are hoping that Obama's comments resonate with superdelegates.

This means that the Pennsylvania vote will be watched very closely for evidence as to how weak Obama truly is among blue-collar voters and how much his San Fransisco comments hurt him. If the final numbers resemble this ARG poll, it could lead to very difficult days in the Obama campaign. But if he comes close to Clinton, he will claim to have put the controversy behind him; Hillary's electability argument will then take a very serious hit. Obama is clearly aware that he needs to bolster his numbers among blue-collar voters. His latest ad (which you can view here) features Senator Bob Casey, most popular among downscale whites.

In many ways, then, "bitter-gate" as some are now calling it could prove an opening for Obama. Consider that, as of last week, Clinton's lead had evaporated and Obama was playing catch-up remarkably well; but, with that improvement, expectations had changed as well: Just like in Ohio, the question had become who would win Pennsylvania -- rather than by how much. This change benefited the Clinton campaign which is seeking to stay alive no matter how small a victory it obtains on April 22nd.

But after 3 days of media hysteria over bitter-gate, the expectations are not only that Clinton will win the Keystone state but that Obama is badly hurting. A single-digits victory by Hillary, while it might have looked like a big relief as of last week, now would appear like a missed opportunity -- which is obviously welcome news for Barack.

One last note for now on bittergate, via Ben Smith: Speaking in Pennsylvania, Clinton said that "I don't think he really gets it that people are looking for a president who stands up for you, not looks down on you. And after seven years of Americans feeling invisible to this President, to President Bush, it's time that we level the playing field and begin acting like Americans again and that we roll up our sleeves and we get to work." (video here) Having criticized McCain's first ad with the tagline "this American president" for seeking to portray Obama as un-American, I have to at least point to Clinton's quote, for she does seem to be saying that Obama's elitist behavior is un-American, just like John Kerry was accused of being "French" in 2004 for not understanding blue-scale voters. But since the formulation is kind of confused, what do you guys think "acting like Americans" is referring to here?