3.30.2008

Sunday polls: McCain remains solid in Rasmussen surveys

Rasmussen and Survey USA are probably the two most prolific pollsters, as they have released most of the state general election surveys we have seen in recent months. And it is hard to not notice that SUSA's results are regularly more favorable to Democrats than Rasmussen's, for whom McCain generally comes out stronger. Both institutes have had a solid track record in recent elections, so we will have to leave it at that, unable to decide whose turnout model matches more closely with what we will see in November 2008.

Rasmussen released two very good polls for the Republican nominee today from two of this year's most important states: Virginia and Wisconsin.

  • In Wisconsin, McCain is edging Obama 48% to 46% and crushing Clinton 50% to 39%.
  • The favorability numbers tell the story: McCain's is a high 61%, Obama's an acceptable 54% while Clinton's is a dramatic 39%.
  • In Virginia, McCain crushes Clinton 58% to 36% and beats Obama 52% to 41%. That's a dramatic change from last month, where Rasmussen showed McCain enjoying a 10% and 5% lead against the two Democrats.
SUSA's Wisconsin poll two weeks ago showed Obama winning by 4% and Clinton by 1%. In Virginia, SUSA had Clinton tying McCain and Obama edging him by 1%.

Wisconsin was one of the tightest states in both 2000 and 2004, and Democrats can ill-afford letting go of its 10 electoral votes. Virginia, meanwhile, voted solidly for Bush in 2000 and 2004 but it is a state Democrats are confident they can finally pull in their column, drawing upon the successes they met in the state in 2005 and 2006. In fact, the belief that he can turn states like Virginia and Colorado are at the center of Obama's electoral map.

Also, it is worth pointing to today's Gallup national tracking poll. I do not report on its numbers every day, but today's poll shows a strong enough trend to be emphasized. Obama has reached a 10% lead, the first time he has reached a double-digit advantage in a Gallup poll. It seems that Obama's Wright buzz being replaced by Clinton's Bosnia controversy has allowed Obama to regain his footing.

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