The electability debate misses the mark: Clinton and Obama both have weaknesses they will have to resolve

For much of the fall, Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama were riding high in general election polls. While they did not lead every single survey, most brought good news for Democrats, as Republicans were unable to stay constantly competitive. Once the GOP settled on John McCain, however, it became obvious that polls were tightening considerably. A streak of Pennsylvania surveys released this week, for example show McCain leading both Democrats, and the same is true in some Michigan polls.

This is not to say that the Republican suddenly looks to be favored -- Democrats are still putting in play a number of red states that McCain will have to work extremely hard to defend, and most indicators still favor their taking over the White House. But there is no question that McCain is looking stronger than Republicans were fearing he might. A recent NBC poll showed generic Democrat beating a generic Republican by 13%, but both Clinton and Obama leading McCain by only 2%. Why the disparity? One very important response right now is that both Democrats are showing some major weaknesses in the general election.

The electability debate has been raging with renewed vigor over the past few days since Mark Penn charged that Obama could not win Pennsylvania in the general. Implied in that charge was the worry that Obama will not be able to hold on to the middle-class or to blue-collar voters, a group of the electorate that has always shown willingness to cross-over to Republicans. The Clinton campaign is charging that Obama will transform Reagan Democrats into McCain Democrats. Naturally, the Obama campaign responds that nomination Clinton would push independents into the GOP's camp and would endanger the turnout among the youth.

Almost all general polls taken show that both of these criticisms are accurate, and right now they are so at equal proportions: Obama and Clinton are building different coalitions, but they are both missing some crucial groups that would allow them to take a solid lead against McCain. Obama needs to bolster his turnout among registered Democrats and reassure the party that he will hold on to the lower-classes, and Clinton has to perform better among independents. Different groups are still uncomfortable with either Clinton or Obama.

But since all these groups are willing to vote for a Democrat in some match-ups, it should reassure the party that McCain is not unconditionally appealing to them. It should point out that independents and the youth and the party's base are all very willing to vote for a Democrat this year (something they were not necessarily excited about in 2004) -- but provided they are comfortable with that nominee. The nominee will have to take advantage of the potential of building a formidable coalition (the VP pick is the most obvious way to do that), but the race will remain competitive if that coalition remains fractured.

I will naturally soon come out with an electoral college chart that rate the different states -- and then propose regular updates -- but I will probably wait for the Democratic nomination to be a bit more settled.