3.31.2008

Delegate breakdown, March 31st edition

There have been quite a few changes to the pledged delegate breakdown since my last update on March 13th. Unfortunately for Clinton, most changes have the count move away from her, either in small doses or in bigger ones (in Iowa).

First, there are two changes to results that were already in and analyzed -- and both favor Obama. In Georgia, I had left the total at the initial 59-28 breakdown, but it appears that I had missed the allocation being updated to 60 delegates for Obama and 27 for Clinton. That changes the February 5th total to 848 for Obama and 833 for Clinton.

In Mississippi, meanwhile, the March 11th primary had left Obama just short of the 62.5% threshold (just among voters who went for Clinton or him). Or so we thought until today: The final certification of the results, with all absentees and recounted ballots taken care of, shows Obama barely crossing that threshold and netting an extra-delegate, 20 to 13 now instead of 19 to 14.

The next 3 set of results come from conventions that were held over the past few weeks to ratify the results of caucuses. The Iowa results have changed quite dramatically, and the Texas numbers are also very interesting: I had not included the delegate breakdown from them in my previous delegate breakdowns because only 41% of the caucus vote was reporting and there was no reason to trust that results would hold precisely. We can now say that the breakdown of the Texas caucuses after the county conventions is 37 for Obama to 30 for Clinton (not the 38-29 that had been projected until now). This means that Obama got a total of 3 more delegates out of the Texas process.

Texas caucuses, county conventions: 56% Obama-44% Clinton

  • Obama: 37 delegates (Texas total: 98)
  • Clinton: 30 (Texas total: 95)
Iowa, county conventions: 61% Obama-37% Clinton

  • Obama: 25 delegates (Previous total based on the Jan. 3rd vote: 16)
  • Clinton: 14 (Previous total: 15)
  • Edwards: 6 (Previous total: 14)
Both these states (and all other caucus-holding states) will still hold one more round of conventions to decide the final allocation of delegates to be sent to the Democratic convention, so these numbers could still evolve.

Democrats abroad (previous allocation was 2.5-2):

  • Obama: 4.5 delegates
  • Clinton: 2.5
This brings us to the following total (also accounting for the fact that a check of my spreadsheet showed that I had miscounted my previous breakdown by 2 delegates):

  • Obama: 1415.5 delegates
  • Clinton: 1253.5
That's a differential of 162 pledged delegates. Clinton will need to rely on big numbers in Pennsylvania and the upcoming states to cut into Obama's lead in a meaningful way -- for her superdelegate hopes to be at all realistic requires the pledged delegate count to be much than that.

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