Wisconsin gets heated, three days from the first competitive contest since Super Tuesday

Obama has routinely been considered as the favorite in Wisconsin. Clinton was expected to concede the race, partly because of financial problems. And it indeed looks like her campaign is not playing for the win here, as it has let itself be outspent four to one in TV ads in the Milwaukee and Madison markets, about $800,000 to $200,000.

Yet, the state’s primary has emerged as a major battleground. After all, the state never lived up to its hype as an Obama safe bet, mostly because of its high proportion of working class voters. The Clinton campaign appears to believe that it can beat expectations in the state, and it has increasingly turned towards Wisconsin in the past few days. The candidate is traveling to the state today and will stay there until Monday. The fact that she will be living a full day before the election confirms that she does not believe she can pull off a win but merely wants to keep the race close. This decision is surprising -- and could soon come back to haunt her -- given that most polls have the race within 4-5%.

As importantly, she has engaged the Obama camp in an increasingly heated back-and-forth on TV airwaves. The two campaigns have now ran four ads (two each) responding to each other on the new hot topic of the day: Is Barack Obama ducking debates? Hillary is accusing her rival of refusing to debate in Wisconsin (the last debate was pre-Super Tuesday, the next one will be on the 21st, two days after Wisconsin), and Obama is responding that, with 18 debates already organized, this is a non-issue and the same “old politics.”

Here is Clinton’s second ad, and Obama’s second response. Both are using the opportunity to accuse the other camp of avoiding tough questions, and they expand to issues such as health care. In a campaign that has had remarkably few televised contrast ads, the Wisconsin primary is marking a turning-point.

Putting aside the merits of this debate argument (I will let you guys argue about that in the comments), the Clinton campaign’s new strategy confirms that they are willing to embrace more aggressive strategies – without going negative just yet, for these contrast ads stay away from personal attacks.

The choice to go after Obama’s refusal to debate is seen as a winner by the Clinton camp because it plays into the idea that Obama is all talk and that he does not back up his lofty rhetoric with policy positions, making a debate more dangerous for him than a speech. This line of argument has been used for weeks by Clinton, but her campaign is stepping it up in recent days. The fact that the Obama campaign has taken the step of airing two responses implies that they think this issue is a problem and that they should take steps to fight that narrative before it takes hold.

Overall, Clinton might very well have to beat expectations on Tuesday. She cannot afford to give up another big chunk of delegates with Obama’s already healthy lead, and the momentum building against her could soon become unstoppable, even with wins in Ohio and Texas.