Feb. 9th results thread: Obama sweeps all states, Huckabee delays coronation

morning: Louisiana ended up going for Huckabee by the tiniest of margins, 43% to 42%. As I explained in my 10:40pm update, that gives him no delegates, but the symbolism of his winning yet another Southern state says a lot about the distrust McCain still inspires. But Huckabee failed to complete the 3-state sweep by falling short in Washington, 26% to 24%. Paul is third at 21%.

11pm: With 78% reporting, McCain is now ahead 26% to 24% in Washington. In Louisiana, with 87% reporting Huckabee's lead has fallen to 44% to 42% with the two candidates now going for an entirely symbolic victory (see 10:40pm).

10:40pm: Everything has got to be complicated in this year's contests, and the Louisiana GOP process is one of them. The state has 47 total delegates, 27 of whom are for sure going to be decided at a state convention to be held on February 16th. The delegates to this state convention were chosen at caucuses held on January 22nd. It was the day of Thompson's withdrawal, and uncommitted got a large number of votes so it's difficult to project the allocation of these delegates.
The remaining 20 delegates will be allocated to the winner of today's primary but only if that winner crosses 50%! Otherwise, those 20 delegates will also be chosen by next week's convention! Right now, Huckabee is at 47% with 58% reporting. So unless he crosses that 50% threshold, he will get no delegates out of today's primary. (The GOP rules of delegate allocation are consistently favoring McCain in a remarkable streak of luck for the front-runner).

10:15pm: As expected, Louisiana is called for Obama. He leads 53-39 with 30% in. Among Republicans, Huckabee leads 48% to 38%, but New Orleans has not reported at all, and McCain could narrow the gap there (not that there are many GOP voters in New Orleans).
In another big development (and I'm not being ironic), Obama wins the Virgin Islands. The campaign was projecting a win here, but the size of Obama's victory is such that he took all 3 delegate votes here. That means the vote of the Virgin Islands will be more important to deciding the nominee than that of, say, Missouri! And in a contest where every delegate count, a three delegate lead is very significant. (It is worth noting that Clinton won the American Samoa and 2 of its 3 delegates on Tuesday). Also, about 2,000 votes were cast which makes the Virgin Islands very well represented at the Dem convention.
Meanwhile, in Washington, Huckabee has taken the lead! With 37% reporting, he is ahead 27% to 23% for McCain and 21% for Paul. Romney is interestingly polling very strong here, at 18% (Note: only one part of the GOP's WA are selected today, another part is linked to the primary results of February 19th).

10pm: I have not said anything of the GOP's Washington caucuses just yet, when it is shaping to be a very close race: With 16% reporting, McCain has 26.6%, Huckabee 25.9% and Ron Paul 21.2%. In Louisiana, Huckabee is up 46% to 38% with 16% reporting as well. Will Huckabee manage a sweep of today's 3 GOP contests?

9:40pm: With 75% reporting, Clinton now trails 67% to 32% in Washington. In Nebraska, 99% are in and the final results are 68% Obama and 32% Clinton. And the first district ended up crossing the threshold of a 4-2 allocation, giving Obama 65%. The third stayed close between the two, which means a 2-2 split of delegates there. The second will split 5-1 (a disastrous result for Hillary here), for a total of 11-5. The 8 remaining delegates will be allocated statewide and will go 5-3 for Obama. That brings us to a 16-8 result, a very good margin for Obama in such a small state.
In Louisiana, the results are just starting to come in, with Obama and McCain slightly up. The second wave of Dem exit polls has the electorate slightly less dramatically polarized along racial lines than what was shown at 9pm, but still a very large racial gap. The GOP exit poll has a McCain-Huckabee tie.

9:00pm: The Louisiana exit polls have Obama up in high single digits, crushing her among the black vote (by more than usual) and being trounced among the white vote (by more than usual). Among people with no college degree (64%), the two are tied. Among those with such a degree, Obama leads by 20%. No call yet.

8:50pm: Washington is called for Obama.
In Nebraska, an update on the delegates with some potential good news for Clinton. As I said at 8:40pm, Obama crushed Clinton in the second district and should probably get a 5-1 split. However, in the third district with 80% counted Obama is leading only 52% to 47%. That means that Clinton forced a delegate split, 2 for each. In the first district, things are more unclear. With 50% counted, Obama is ahead with 58% "only." If that number holds, the district's 6 delegates will be split equally, 3-3 (Obama needs to get more than 59%).
One more complicating factor: The results based on which convention delegates will be allocated are the percentages of state delegates won by each candidate -- just like in Iowa. And the breakdown of that is unclear (it will be important in the first district). Yes, it's confusing. What more do you expect from a caucus?

8:40pm: With 50% of Washington's precincts reporting, Obama is ahead 67% to 32%. This is going to probably have a dramatic impact on the delegate count (obviously no precise breakdown can be provided for now).
In Nebraska, as I said all districts are even delegate districts (6, 6 and 4). That would have given Clinton a chance to tie Obama at an 8-8 split if she had held him under 59%. But we now have results from the second district, with Obama won with 76%. If I am not mistaken, that means a 5-1 split in delegates (to be confirmed). However,

8:30pm: As expected, the Nebraska caucuses are called for Obama as well. With 73% in, Obama is ahead 69% to 31%. Clinton's ads in the state did not manage to reduce the margin here. This should also create some delegate margins, as all 3 districts are even delegates. With 69%, Obama should get favorable splits in all of them, not to mention the statewide breakdown.

8:20pm: Washington state is reporting fast, and Obama is heading to a big victory. With 34% in, Obama is ahead 66% to 32%. Caucuses are delivering big for Obama again.

Original Post: Washington, Nebraska and Louisiana (and the Virgin Islands) are holding Democratic contests today. None is expected to be particularly close, with my preview of these contests available here. At issue is mainly the margin between the candidates and whether there is a significant delegate discrepancy. The only indication we have for now is turnout, and it appears to have been big even in a Republican state like Nebraska. The Omaha World-Herald describes the intensity of the operations there as "overwhelming."

On the Republican side, Louisiana and Washington still have to decide a winner. Kansas held caucuses earlier in the day, and Mike Huckabee handily won, 60% to 24% for John McCain, with 11% for Ron Paul. That gives him the state's 36 pledged delegates (the system is not winner-take-all but McCain would have to win one of the three districts to get a delegate, and the big loss makes it unlikely that he did that). This win is hardly a surprise given that committed conservatives dominate caucuses, and that is the group McCain has not been able to appeal to at all. In fact, Romney won almost all the caucuses held on Super Tuesday, often with very healthy margins.

Labels: , , , , ,


  • Poor guy. He majored in miracles,not math. I hope he isn't holding his breath.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, At 09 February, 2008 17:45  

  • This warms my heart:
    "It doesn't look good for Clinton at Monroe Middle School.

    The line to the Clinton box is empty. The line to vote for Obama is about a half block long."

    --From the link to the Omaha World-Herald in Taniel's post.

    By Anonymous David, Tallahassee FL, At 09 February, 2008 19:38  

  • Note to everyone: Wait for March 4th. Barack can win every state until then, but if he doesn't do well in Texas and Ohio (don't expect him to), Clinton will be in the driver's seat.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, At 09 February, 2008 20:06  

  • If Clinton wins big in Ohio and Texas she will indeed be in the driver's seat. As an Obama supporter, I heartily agree.

    By Anonymous stone621, At 10 February, 2008 14:05  

Post a Comment

Subscribe to Post Comments [Atom]

<< Home