2.08.2008

The February 5th delegate count

It is extremely difficult to find a clear indication of who won how many pledged delegates on Tuesday night. We got estimations on Tuesday night, but very little has been updated since then. The networks are tallying all delegates together -- including superdelegates -- so that it is not easy to just identify what happened on February 5th.

To help you get a clue as to what the state of the race is, here is a simple chart with the state-by-state delegate allocation numbers.

As you will see, the delegate count of many states has not been fully released yet. Different websites and networks were at different stages of the allocation process; for some states CNN had the most recent version, for others it was way behind MSNBC. I looked at both of these websites and to The Green Papers to try and give you the most updated picture for each state.

At this time, there is still a total of 70 outstanding delegates (i.e. delegates that haven't been allocated yet because the exact breakdown of votes by district is not known yet), and most of them happen to be from states Obama did well in (Colorado has 27 delegates outstanding, Illinois has 14). That should help Obama make up the small deficit he still has right now. I will periodically come back to this post and update these numbers, so remember this page.

One last note: New Mexico still has not been called. Hillary Clinton is 1,100 votes ahead, with 99% of precincts reported. They reportedly are 17,000 provisional ballots to be counted, which is what is holding things up. As you will see, however, there is enough information to allocate the 17 district-level delegates. If Obama ends up winning the state, we will go from a 14-12 Clinton lead to a 13-13 tie. (Update: New Mexico is heading for a recount of all the ballots. Actually, it does not sound like a recount as much as starting everything all over again: "But the Democrat-only contest was plagued by so many problems that the state party, along with the Clinton and Obama campaigns, agreed that only checking all ballots cast would insure an accurate result.")


Alabama
: 56% Obama-42% Clinton

  • Clinton: 25 delegates
  • Obama: 27
Alaska: 74% Obama-25% Clinton (these are not raw votes, but percentages of delegates at the state convention)

  • Clinton: 4 delegates
  • Obama: 9
American Samoa:

  • Clinton: 2 delegates
  • Obama: 1
Arizona: 51% Clinton-42% Obama

  • Clinton: 31 delegates
  • Obama: 25
Arkansas: 70% Clinton-27% Obama

  • Clinton: 27 delegates
  • Obama: 8
California (Updated March 13th): 52% Clinton-42% Obama

  • Clinton: 203 delegates
  • Obama: 167
Colorado (Updated March 13th): 66% Obama-32% Clinton

  • Clinton: 20 delegates
  • Obama: 35
Connecticut: 51% Obama-47% Clinton

  • Clinton: 22 delegates
  • Obama: 26
Delaware: 53% Obama-42% Clinton

  • Clinton: 6 delegates
  • Obama: 9
Georgia: 66% Obama-31% Clinton

  • Clinton: 28 delegates
  • Obama: 59
Idaho: 80% Obama-17% Clinton

  • Clinton: 3 delegates
  • Obama: 15
Illinois (Updated Feb. 14th): 65% Obama-33% Clinton

  • Clinton: 49 delegates
  • Obama: 104
Kansas: 74% Obama-26% Clinton

  • Clinton: 9 delegates
  • Obama: 23
Massachusetts: 56.5% Clinton-41% Obama

  • Clinton: 55 delegates
  • Obama: 38
Minnesota: 67% Obama-32% Clinton

  • Clinton: 24 delegates
  • Obama: 48
Missouri: 49% Obama-48% Clinton

  • Clinton: 36 delegates
  • Obama: 36
New Jersey: 54% Clinton-44% Obama

  • Clinton: 59 delegates
  • Obama: 48
New Mexico: 48.51% Clinton-48.35% Obama

  • Clinton: 14 delegates
  • Obama: 12
  • Explanation: The first and third districts, which Obama won, allocate 6 delegates. Obama had to beat 59% to get 4 out of 6 in either, which he failed to do, being forced into a 3-3 split of delegates. In the second district, which allocates 5 delegates, Clinton won by 3%, thus winning an extra delegate. Also, if Obama does pull ahead here statewide, the delegate count should be 13-13.
New York (Updated Feb. 9th): 57% Clinton-40% Obama

  • Clinton: 139 delegates
  • Obama: 93
North Dakota: 61% Obama-37% Clinton

  • Clinton: 5 delegates
  • Obama: 8
Oklahoma: 55% Clinton-31% Obama

  • Clinton: 24 delegates
  • Obama: 14
Tennessee (Updated Feb. 9th): 54% Clinton-41% Obama

  • Clinton: 40 delegates
  • Obama: 28
Utah: 57% Obama-39% Clinton

  • Clinton: 9 delegates
  • Obama: 14
Total of pledged delegates allocated on February 5th (finalized, Feb. 16th; updated March 13th to reflect changes in California and Colorado):

  • Clinton: 834 delegates
  • Obama: 847
Total of pledged delegates, including Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina:

  • Clinton: 882 delegates
  • Obama: 910
The count is agonizingly close and will change as states finish reporting their delegate attributions. It is clear that Super Tuesday resolved nothing and that we are in this for the long-run. As Politico's Ben Smith wrote yesterday: "Indiana and N.C. vote on May 6, which may be the new April 22, after April 22 becomes the new March 4, which is already the new Feb. 5."

12 Comments:

  • Thanks Taniel. I've been trying to figure this out myself, without a lot of success.
    As a North Carolinian, I am so excited that my vote will count!

    By Anonymous as, At 08 February, 2008 11:07  

  • Thanks for trying. I still do not understand the "outstanding" and super delegate count.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, At 08 February, 2008 11:10  

  • More fun on the way! More time to reel in spectators to bash down the rightwing into rubble. I hope they do another dozen debates. This is great! How about a wide open debate with all five from both parties? That would be great for ratings!

    By Anonymous Anonymous, At 08 February, 2008 11:27  

  • I agree fellow North Carolinian!

    High Country for Hillary! (right now I think it's only a club of one... me.)

    By Anonymous app state, At 08 February, 2008 11:42  

  • If you think we should end the culture of super delegates, sign this petition: www.myspace.com/endsuperdelegatesnow

    By Blogger Eze, At 08 February, 2008 11:49  

  • Thanks so much for this! The media is so myopic sometimes. They build these amazing storylines in the moment, but if it takes three or four days of hard work to verify their conclusions, they couldn't be bothered. Why isn't it a story when the two campaigns are fighting for every delegate?

    I'll be checking back often for updates.

    By Anonymous Rich Evans, At 08 February, 2008 14:57  

  • People are only whining about super-delegates now because it could sink the hollow Obama ship.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, At 08 February, 2008 16:09  

  • Eze: Sure lest do away with the super delegates, but hold on, aren't you the same people bitching about changing the rules in the middle of the game when the issue of sitting the delegates from Florida and Michigan was raised? So let me see how this works; if it benefits Obama, then is ok to change to rules, but if it benefit Hillary, well no, that is bad. Bad, bad Hillary! But see, Obambi got into the game with super delegates. Will the great hope monger change the rules to his benefit? Surely you don’t mean that. Or do you EZE?

    By Anonymous Robert_V, At 08 February, 2008 16:38  

  • The fact that it takes this long to assign delegates or even count votes give me a great deal of confidence in our electoral system...

    By Anonymous Andy, At 08 February, 2008 16:52  

  • Does anyone know if Alabama was subjected to gerrymandering by the GOP as far as congressional districts go?

    This may be one reason why Obama's 56%-42% in Alabama translates to 25 to 23 delegate difference only, but HRC's win in California (52 to 42%) translates to bigger delegate ratio difference.

    just wondering....

    By Blogger Tony, At 09 February, 2008 04:00  

  • Answer to "Anonymous at 08 February, 2008 11:10"

    Q- I still do not understand the "outstanding" and super delegate count.

    A1- outstanding means some of the votes from Feb 5 have not been counted yet (probably absentee votes) and remaining delegates will be assigned once the count is over.

    A2- Superdelegates are certain elected and non-elected Democrats (governors, congressmen, DNC people) who are delegates by default. They decide who to go for and are not awarded based on people's votes

    By Anonymous Anonymous, At 09 February, 2008 04:57  

  • Why Alabama has such a low delegate margin for Obama?

    Bad luck! Districts 1, 2 and 6 award 4 delegates each and unless I'm mistaking, they include Mobile, Montgomery and Birmingham respectively. If Obama ends up with 62% to Clinton's 38% in those districts:
    0.62 * 4 = 2.48 which means 1.52 delegates for Clinton. These are rounded and end up as 2 delegates for each... so he'd have to break 62.5% to get 3 delegates to her 1 delegate, which is hard to do.

    All other 4 districts award an odd number of delegates and whoever gets even one vote more, will have at least one more delegate.

    But there are 18 delegates proportionally distributed at the state level and Obama should get 10 of those to Clinton's 8.

    In summary, it may be bad luck but he may also get all 4 or 3 of the outstanding (not determined yet) delegates.

    This happened in Nevada where Clinton won by 51% to Obama's 45% but Obama got 13 delegates to her 12, so it really is just luck (I'm an Obama supporter).

    By Anonymous Anonymous, At 09 February, 2008 05:15  

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