2.23.2008

Deleate breakdown, February 23rd edition: We now have half-delegates

A little more than a week away from Ohio and Texas, it is worth looking once more to the delegate count and how much it has changed since Super Tuesday. Now that Wisconsin, Hawaii and Democrats Abroad have voted and reported their totals, Obama has increased his total even more compared to our last delegate breakdown, done on Feb. 16th.

Wisconsin: 58% Obama-41% Clinton

  • Clinton: 32 delegates
  • Obama: 42
Hawaii: 74% Obama-24% Clinton

  • Clinton: 6 delegates
  • Obama: 14
Democrats abroad: 66% Obama-33% Clinton

  • Clinton: 2 delegates
  • Obama: 2.5
  • The primary vote awarded a total of 9 delegates, that was split 5-4 Obama, but each only gets half-a-vote, which gets us into half-delegates.
That brings us to the following totals of pledged delegates, including those from all the states that have already voted:

  • Obama: 1195.5
  • Clinton: 1048 delegates
  • Outstanding: 0
That gives us the following chart of the pledge delegate differential since I started detailing the breakdown after Super Tuesday:

  • After Super Tuesday (after accounting for all delegates): +22 for Obama
  • After February 9th/10th: + 79 Obama
  • After February 12th (Potomac primaries): +128 for Obama
  • After February 19th (and Democrats Abroad): +147.5 for Obama
That Obama would get more delegates out of February was expected, but the incredible growth he showed was unpredictable. His strength in Washington (+28) and Virginia (+25) ended up being particularly significant. (It is worth noting that if the Washington primaries had been used to determine delegates instead of the caucuses, the numbers would have been closer. Obama won the caucuses by more than 30%, but the primary with low single-digits. Unfortunately for the Clinton campaign, this sort of anti-caucus argument could only be useful if they were overall closer in the count, since they could then hope to provide cover to superdelegates. But that is made very difficult by the size of Obama's current lead).

8 Comments:

Post a Comment

Subscribe to Post Comments [Atom]



<< Home