Campaign Diaries: New Iowa poll is a Christmas gift for Hillary and... McCain?! (Updated: McCain making a run for it?)

12.24.2007

New Iowa poll is a Christmas gift for Hillary and... McCain?! (Updated: McCain making a run for it?)

This could possibly be the first time in history pollsters have to work on December 24th; but with Iowa around the corner we are getting polls at the end of December. Now we will have to take polls with a grain of salt from now on, cause with people going on break and things messed up by holidays, things can get unreliable. (Check out latest from Iowa's Democratic race and GOP race).

Here is ARG's latest release from Iowa. A week ago, Clinton was on top 29% to 25% and 18% for Edwards, while Huckabee was dominating the GOP race 28% to 20% for... McCain (the first poll in pretty much 8-9 months showing McCain ahead of Romney). Here is what we get today:

Among the GOP, 5 candidates are in double-digits and within 13%: Huckabee at 23%, Romney at 20%, McCain at 17%, Giuliani at 14%, Paul at 10%. Thompson only gets 3%.
Among Democrats, Hillary crushes the opposition 34% to Edwards's 20% and Obama's 19%.

While McCain has lost his edge over Romney, these numbers are still stunning -- and could they be believable? Rasmussen also showed an Iowa surge for McCain last week, so with three polls within 7 days maybe there is something to it?

The big outlier in the GOP poll is naturally Thompson's percentage: 4%?! That's just very implausible, given that if anything Thompson has been growing stronger in Iowa in the past 2-3 weeks. All in all, I think this confirms that Iowa polls this week will be very unreliable and probably all over the place.

As for Democrats, I'm not sure what to think: The poll last week confirmed that Obama was losing his momentum, and was in line with everything else. The poll this week is not at all in line with what we have seen, but it is also by far the latest poll in the field (December 20-23) so if there is any big Clinton momentum out there it's only going to be picked up now.

So all in all same as the GOP poll: Take Clinton's double-digit lead with a grain of salt, and let's wait for other institutes to confirm whether she has opened up a lead.

But one thing does appear confirmed already: Clinton has erased her downward spiral in Iowa and the trend-lines are in her favor -- while it is impossible to judge how far that has allowed her to rise or whether it has just been useful to halt Obama's rise, there is no question that Clinton's gloom of two weeks ago is now gone.

Thank you Des Moines Register endorsement?

Update: TPM reports that McCain has now scheduled three days of campaigning in Iowa. Is he actually hearing confirmation of the ARG polls and seeing his numbers move as well in Iowa? This could prove huge: McCain was expected to get a very low result in Iowa, and he has been out of the state for months. And you can be sure he wouldn't come back in and open himself up to talk of a disappointing result (whereas now no one was going to fault him since he hadn't campaigned in Iowa) if he didn't seen an opportunity. A strong McCain third place (I dare not even speak of a second place) would be huge news and would probably propel McCain very far in New Hampshire.

Labels: IA-Dem, IA-GOP

36 Comments:

Wadda friggin JOKE!!

12 point!!

hahahahahhahahahhahaahahha

By Anonymous, At 24 December, 2007 12:41
ARG has a lot of nerve to release these numbers. They don't line up with ANYTHING we've seen on the Republican side.

What a joke.

By Anonymous, At 24 December, 2007 13:14
PEOPLE DON'T BELIEVE THIS CRAP, IT'S PROPAGANDA BY HILLARY.

false info!

By Anonymous, At 24 December, 2007 14:39
The poll only counted "completed telephone interviews" which is a big signal that the pollster was skewing its numbers, for instance, not counting people that had given the pollster the "wrong answer". This poll is a joke, bought and paid for the Clinton campaign. If anyone thinks that Edwards and Obama are in free fall, then they nothing about what is going on the ground in Iowa.

By Anonymous, At 24 December, 2007 15:04
Would it not be fair to the leading candidate Hillary to say STATISTICAL dead heat? Just a thought for FAIR and Balanced reporting.

People, pollsters, pundits give undue importance to the Iowa caucus. Isn’t it time to break the back of this myth of Iowa’s importance? They haven’t picked a winner since 1976. And Clinton and Kerry won the democratic nominations without winning in Iowa. Enough with the rural pandering.

What has happened to Analysts allover the media. Can somebody tell the public that the 2008 primary season / cycle is DIFFERENT from yesteryears! We are talking January 3rd caucusing next to the New Year. Then New Hampshire then South Carolina THEN:

SUPER DUPER TUESDAY. Its going to be different this time. The early states voters may as well stay warm at home. Super Tuesday will decide the nominee. That needs money and organisation which the fringe candidates do not have!

I still am betting on the come-back-kid McCain now that DIRTY TRICKS Dubya and Karl Rove is no more!!!!

Go Hillary44 08! http://hillaryis44.org/

By Ajay Jain, At 24 December, 2007 17:40
ARG has about as much credibility as the Roswell UFOs. It's a joke in NH, it's home state. If you spend your time watching them, you should get a hobby - that, or wait for the Zogbys, Rasmussens and Gallups, who actually know what they're doing.

By Anonymous, At 24 December, 2007 19:24
The telling figure is that Ron Paul has 10% of the Republican vote in Iowa. I don't believe that for a second. The media loves John McCain, and a close second is Ron Paul. The media does not like Rudy Guliani (shown as being aloof), Fred Thompson (shown as an intellectual lightweight), nor Mitt Romney (starting to show him a bit wooden).

On the Dem side, I will stick with what I have said for a while--Obama will finish third in Iowa. If Edwards doesn't finish first in Iowa, he's done. I am surprised that one of the second tier Dems haven't made a run for it, but besides Bill Richardson, they seem old and out of touch.

By Anonymous, At 24 December, 2007 21:48
Kerry does not have to apologise for STATING FACTS:

He said ""It's probably not something that appeals to him, but I like the fact that his name is Barack Hussein Obama and his father was a Muslim and this his paternal grandmother is a Muslim,” he said at the time."

Yes Obama's father is/was a Muslim and his mother an American White female.

So what! Hillary/Bill do not have to get defensive about their comments, language, remarks on any forum be it Charlie Rose Show or Kerry's event endorsing Hillary. There is no parsing or apology required.

Obama needs to be brought down from the pedestal.

People should not be afraid to attack Obama because of his Muslim / Black heritage.

We can not be labeled “racist” for relevant attacks in this election cycle.

Like Obama and Oprah are BARGAINERS and Bill and Hillary Clinton are CHALLENGERS. Thus Obama brought by his white mother and maternal relations is whiter than Clintons in the abstract!

Obama has not struggled like any Black has or has he experienced segregation like any Black in the US has. Thus Obama does not have a single “Black” bone in his body.

Through their politics, positions and staff hiring the CLINTONS are “blacker” than Obama with all his ex-Clinton aides!

Obama may have the press honeymoon for a while but he can not get the nomination without greater scrutiny.

And scrutiny we need. Operations Research on Obama is not a racist action but part of legitimate politics and campaigning.

Go Hillary44 08! http://hillaryis44.org/

By Ajay Jain, At 25 December, 2007 14:33
I am always hopeful that the Democrats will not shoot themselves in the foot. It seems as if they are finally seeing that Obama is the Republican key to the White House door. Only Hillary has a real chance of winning a general election. Say what you will, she is the smartest, the most experienced and the one that the Republicans fear the most. That is why they are promoting Obama. He will be so easy to beat no matter who the Republicans nominate. If only she would pick someone like Joe Biden as her running mate. He would do what Edwards wouldn't do for John Kerry--stand up and fight.

By Barbara LeBey, At 25 December, 2007 21:37
LET THE DIRTY TRICKS & VOTER MANIPULATION BEGIN. This Poll is a FRAUD with Hillary Clinton's campaign fingerprints all over it. There will be alot of psychological warfare in the coming week after Christmas. Hillary can only win by persuading the electorate that they need to jump on her bandwagon before it pulls out of the station. I live in New York. If the people in Iowa knew who in NY was behind (supporting and financing) the Clinton campaign they would think again before voting for her. HILLARY IS A FRAUD

By Christopher London, At 25 December, 2007 22:57
After 8 years of being an up close and personal observer of what it is like to be President she is the only candidate from either party that has this insight. Coupled with 8 years in the Senate and 10 yeas as the wife of a Governor, an excellent education and superior intellect she is fully qualified to be the next President of the United States. We need a woman President who possess both empathy and compassion yet the toughness to make the difficult decisions required of the position. A combination of qualities rarely found in the male species that’s first priority is proving their manhood. Evolution has conditioned men to settle most disputes with some form of bloodletting carnage as is clearly displayed by the unbelievable bloody history of our species.

You may not like her laugh or demeanor but the future of our existence could very well depend on who occupies the White House for the next 8 years. Considering the shambles in which our country now finds itself, and the power keg of the middle east along with the emerging powers of third world countries, our country needs a unique individual. Hillary Clinton is that person. Put the welfare of our country and the world first and make Hillary Clinton our next President.

By Anonymous, At 26 December, 2007 00:27
I'd strongly suggest that Iowans read this article by Same Sedaei (Huffington Post) about Hillary's pollsters before voting for her. The Clinton campaign, as usual, is counting on Iowans being stupid and unread:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/sam-sedaei/the-clintons-the-high-pr_b_77298.html

By Anonymous, At 26 December, 2007 01:44
Sorry: TYPO. Meant "Sam Sedaei."

By Anonymous, At 26 December, 2007 01:45
Go Hillary!!!!!!!!!! In spite of the apparent desire for a horse race in our Poltical process, the media has been less than even handed in their coverage of the campaigns. The scrutiny of the Clintons has been intense while Obama gets a pass. Especially the self pescribed tough guy Chris Matthews. I wonder if Bill ever made a pass at his wife (Queen) OR MAYBE SHE HAS AN AFFECTION FOR OLD BILL. Matthews is a weenie,and should be challenged when he makes some bias assurtions. How does he get away with his disengenious "HardBall" tactics.

By Anonymous, At 26 December, 2007 09:29
You have to look at all the polls over the past week, this will show Hillary leading by 2 pts - a statistical tie.

By Anonymous, At 26 December, 2007 10:32
Hillary loses. Her plane is smoking and losing altitude. Only a matter of time before she goes down for good, thank God. Too slippery. No one knows who she is or why she wants Hillary Clinton to be president--Republican or Democrat.

By Anonymous, At 26 December, 2007 10:43
To JRM: You are right on the money. Chris Matthews can't contain his irrational hatred for the Clintons. I've been told he wanted to be Bill Clinton's press secretary but never got his foot in the door for an interview. That could account for some of the wrath but it's over the top. Whatever the reason, he should try to tone it down because he is losing his credibility to pour forth so much hatred for one woman while relentlessly pushing Obama. I used to watch Matthews, but I can't take anymore of his vitriole against Hillary Clinton. I will never understand why this vile persists against a woman who has done so much good and so little harm to anyone compared to most of the knuckleheads that are running in both parties. She has consistently stood for families, for children, for women, and she has a depth of understanding that few men have except maybe Bill.

By Barbara LeBey, At 26 December, 2007 13:21
as i expected, humpty-obama was gonna fall down, down, down. end of the day (or after the oprah show), smart people were going to make the right choice. and that's hillary clinton.

By Anonymous, At 26 December, 2007 13:49
Please don't reason that Chris Matthews is anything but deranged.
He is better known in this household as the Male Chauvinist Pig on MSNBC.

By Anonymous, At 26 December, 2007 14:51
Students are not at their land lines, young people are out shopping/drinking/at parties, and OLDER people are there to pick up the call. This is a very OFF poll.

By Anonymous, At 26 December, 2007 16:24
Obama is getting away with murder and nobody in the press is raising a finger. His State Senator record of hundreds of votes as "PRESENT not VOTING" has not been questioned. He touts his judgment but does not leave a record trail behind to debate his judgment on issues / bills?

Obama may have the press honeymoon for a while but he can not get the nomination without greater scrutiny. And scrutiny we need. Operations Research on Obama is not a racist action but part of legitimate politics and campaigning.

For example: "Kerry Apology for MUSLIM remark on Obama":
Kerry does not have to apologize for STATING FACTS:

He said ""It's probably not something that appeals to him, but I like the fact that his name is Barack Hussein Obama and his father was a Muslim and this his paternal grandmother is a Muslim,” he said at the time."

Yes Obama's father is/was a Muslim and his mother an American White female.

So what! Hillary/Bill do not have to get defensive about their comments, language, remarks on any forum be it Charlie Rose Show or Kerry's event endorsing Hillary. There is no parsing or apology required.

Obama needs to be brought down from the pedestal.

Go Hillary44 08! http://hillaryis44.org/

By Ajay Jain, At 26 December, 2007 17:01
Aren't you laughing? Republicans for Obama posting here, singing his praises. Wake up folks. Republicans know all too well that he has no chance in a general election. It's no wonder they are rallying around him to get the Democratic nomination. He is getting a free pass, and that pass is going to lead us into another 4 years of a Republican in the White House unless Democrats stop living in neverland. Republicans fear a Clinton nomination because they know she can beat almost any one of their candidates, maybe with the exception of Guiliani. And that isn't a likely occurence because Republicans are so hung up with Jesus that they can't abide a man who has been thrice married and has some personal baggage. That's my take on where we are. Go Hillary, and bring Democrats back into power. We need to clean up the Bush mess.

By Barbara LeBey, At 26 December, 2007 17:29
What would you Obama supporters say if the poll showed Obama ahead by 14 points? Would you say Hillary supporters would be entitled to say it was a fraud, paid for by the Obama campaign? You do not have any more evidence to say the current poll is a fraud than Hillary supporters would have to attack the poll if the results were opposite.

The intensity of your reactions belies your panic.

By Anonymous, At 26 December, 2007 17:50
Obama is polling much better than what he will actually get. I really don't think he's as close to Hillary as many people think. He's not too far away, and neither is Edwards. See if Edwards doesn't make a run in the next few days.

By Anonymous, At 26 December, 2007 21:35
ajay: The present votes haven't become an issue because people, including other legislators, individuals from Planned Parenthood, Dick Durbin (senior Senator from IL), etc., have come forward to confirm that some "present" votes were coordinated to protect state senators in conservative districts from having to vote on poorly constructed laws (votes that could be used against them in later races), or that other votes were done to signal opposition to the constitutionality of the law [Obama taught Constitutional Law at the University of Chicago for several years], or a willingness for a state senator to work with the law's author on improving the law. I'm not sure how many times this needs to be stated. People talk about Obama getting a cakewalk, but when the facts come out to support what he's said about the matter from the beginning, then people just dismiss the facts. Why? If you want to read about someone not being challenged, look at Clinton's claim of "35 years of experience". Someone's finally asked exactly what kind of "experience" she really has, and uncovered (as many have been saying for a while) that she doesn't really have the "experience" that she claims. http://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/26/us/politics/26clinton.html?_r=1&ref=politics&oref=slogin
Yet, watch people dismiss this as another "right wing attack" or the media "just trying help Obama and/or Edwards" or the media's "hatred of Clinton", all of which are ludicrous claims! I'm amazed that people won't believe facts when they're in their face, but will simply eat up Clinton spin without question.

Also, it's ridiculous to say that someone deserves to be attacked or smeared as something they're not. Attacking someone because of their "heritage," even when false claims been debunked time and time again, is at best, irresponsible. It shows a lack of judgment, honesty and credibility, and is strongly reminiscent of George W. Bush's tactics. Clinton spins her campaign to avoid the comparison to Bush, but it's there. In fact, Edwards is warning about her plan to use 9/11 in the closing days of the campaign in Iowa. I remember the outrage Democrats voiced when Bush did this, but now, for some strange reason, it's okay for Clinton to do this? Really, what's wrong with this nation?! We look more and more like an idiocracy with each passing day.

By Anonymous, At 26 December, 2007 22:44
Obama is he getting SCARED again or is it a way to play the underdog after the Obama-Oprah hoorah? Who needs cash? Obama the greatest cash raising machine known in the democratic circle beating Hillary on raising cash! Who are we kidding now with mailings in the last two weeks!!!

Go Hillary44 08! http://hillaryis44.org/

By Ajay Jain, At 26 December, 2007 23:34
Obama is getting away with murder and nobody in the press is raising a finger. His State Senator record of hundreds of votes as "PRESENT not VOTING" has not been questioned. He touts his judgment but does not leave a record trail behind to debate his judgment on issues / bills?

Obama may have the press honeymoon for a while but he can not get the nomination without greater scrutiny. And scrutiny we need. Operations Research on Obama is not a "racist" action but part of legitimate politics and campaigning.

For example: "Kerry Apology for MUSLIM remark on Obama":

Kerry does not have to apologize for STATING FACTS:

He said "It's probably not something that appeals to him, but I like the fact that his name is Barack Hussein Obama and his father was a Muslim and this his paternal grandmother is a Muslim,” he said at the time."

Yes Obama's father is/was a Muslim and his mother an American White female.

So what! Hillary/Bill do not have to get defensive about their comments, language, remarks on any forum be it Charlie Rose Show or Kerry's event endorsing Hillary. There is no parsing or apology required.

Obama needs to be brought down from the pedestal if he has to compete fair and square in this election cycle of 2008.

Go Hillary44 08! http://hillaryis44.org/

By Ajay Jain, At 26 December, 2007 23:35
I completely concur with those who say that Obama has been getting a free pass in the press, esp. on "Hardbull," where Matthews minute-by-minute betrays his vitriol for Hillary and Bill Clinton, hiding his misogynist tendencies under cover of rooting for the black guy. It's a HOAX. He's a complete chameleon fraud.

Obama is not qualified, nor is he really a liberal. His views belie mixed political consciousness.

Matthews is embarassingly biased and misogynist. I cannot believe that they sanction that crap on MSNBC. He's pathetic.

Obama is an average white candidate, but not a great candidate by any means. If he were white, that is, he'd not only not be in the running, he wouldn't be in the race. Hillary, on the other hand, isn't playing the gender card. She's playing AGAINST the misogyny card of the media.

Matthews should be ashamed of himself.

By Anonymous, At 27 December, 2007 01:16
Either some of you are racist cowards or you're the most ignorant Americans on the internet. If Obama was a white male with the same character, resume and accomplishments during his significant tenure in elected office, you would be salivating over his candidacy. Most of you haven't even studied his resume and experience, because you don't care enough about this country to put our best hope for positive change in the "white" house. What the hell do you underachievers know about the words you are expelling out your a$$?

Obama'08

By floydknight, At 28 December, 2007 13:36
People, pollsters, pundits give undue importance to the Iowa caucus. Isn’t it time to break the back of this myth of Iowa’s importance? They haven’t picked a winner since 1976.

Bill Clinton and John Kerry won the democratic nominations without winning in Iowa. Enough with the rural pandering.

What has happened to all the Analysts at CNN. Can somebody reporter/commentator/Analyst tell the public that the 2008 primary season / cycle is DIFFERENT from yesteryears! We are talking January 3rd caucusing next to the New Year. Then New Hampshire then South Carolina THEN:

SUPER DUPER TUESDAY. Its going to be different this time. The early states voters may as well stay warm at home. Super Tuesday will decide the nominee. That needs money and organization which the fringe candidates including Edward (the contender in Iowa & New Hampshire) do not have!

I still am betting on the come-back-kid McCain for the Republican nominee, now that DIRTY TRICKS Dubya Bush Jr. and Karl Rove are no more!!!!

McCain vs Hillary. McCain will be a much better GOP nominee for Hillary to beat. Because he is a IRAQ war monger! Surge supporter!!

Go Hillary44 08! http://hillaryis44.org/

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12.24.2007

New Iowa poll is a Christmas gift for Hillary and... McCain?! (Updated: McCain making a run for it?)

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