In split decision, two worlds and electoral coalitions collided last night

As expected, two worlds collided last night, and each candidate posted a resounding victory. Clinton's 35 percent victory in Kentucky allowed her to own the night and get as good a pledged delegate split as she has gotten all year. But as has often been the case, Obama was ready with a retort: Not only did his 16 percent margin in Oregon (with 9/10th of the precincts reporting) exceed expectations but he clinched a clear majority of pledged delegates last night, allowing him to heighten his claim to the nomination.

Kentucky and Oregon were also shockingly opposite worlds when it came to the voting behavior of key constituencies. In Kentucky, Clinton's victory might have been lopsided but there were few surprises in the exit polls: Clinton trounced Obama among white voters, especially women, the working-class, voters with less education and less income. In Oregon, Obama confirmed that the Northwest is among his strongest territories by accomplishing what he had only truly succeeded in doing in Wisconsin: make inroads in Clinton's constituencies. He opened a small lead among women, voters with no college degree and in almost all income groups. Those groups were still Clinton's strongest, preserving the gender/income/education gap that has been dominating the Democratic primaries, but Obama had no problem with white blue-collar voters in Oregon.

Yesterday's votes were more about Obama than about Clinton. With the New York Senator on the brink of elimination, the main question that had to be answered was how Oregon and Kentucky would impact Obama's candidacy going forward: Would they force him to go through more talk of his electability weakness and his problems among the working class, or would they put a triumphant coda on his march towards the nomination? The size of Clinton's victory in Kentucky ensures a round of stories addressing the former question -- as they should. No presumptive nominee can be trounced by 35 percent and expect to not have that defeat dissected. But the biggest story last night was Obama's declaring that the nomination is "within reach" and welcoming the majority of pledged delegates.

The difference in the votes of blue-collar voters in Oregon and Kentucky also points to the crucial question of the electoral coalition Obama wants to cultivate. A few days ago, I considered the choices the campaign faces in terms of the electoral map, as Obama's consistent weakness in Ohio and Florida is leading the campaign to emphasize the importance of other states like Virginia, Colorado and other Western states. To this alternative electoral map corresponds an alternative electoral coalitions, one that does not put as much weight on the Midwest's white working-class.

Going forward, Obama's hold on the nomination was not endangered last night -- but neither was Clinton's resolve to stay in the race until every contest is finished. It is this dual reality that is making the Democratic primary such a surreal situation in recent weeks. Clinton will only feel strengthened in her self-proclaimed struggle to represent lower-income voters and women within the Democratic Party after last night, but the math has become impossible for Clinton to even get close to Obama -- let alone to take any sort of delegate lead. My calculations now put her 149 pledged delegate away from Obama with 86 remaining to be attributed in 3 states, two of which favor her opponent.

Meanwhile, superdeleates are continuing to flow towards Obama, though the the count this morning is tied so far: Obama got the support of Connecticut Rep. Joe Courtney, while Clinton was endorsed by Ohio add-on Craig Bashein. Clinton did get some hope to regain her footing in one metric that only some Democrats insist is important: the popular vote. She netted a 150,000 vote advantage yesterday in her quest to a popular vote majority without counting Michigan.