3.24.2008

Monday polls: Nevada promises to stay tight, North Carolina leans red

A few polls this morning from Rasmussen, who released two state general election surveys to complement its national tracking. Democrats are continuing to look weak nationally, as today's numbers show McCain lading Obama 50% to 41% and Clinton 49% to 42%. This is the first time McCain is reaching 50% against Obama in Rasmussen's tracking, and his continued dominance comes at a time in which most other polls are showing Obama starting to recover from his post-Wright fall. Those include Rasmussen's two state polls:

  • In Nevada, McCain very narrowly trails both Democrats, 45% to 41% against Obama and 44% to 43% against Clinton.
The only reason Nevada is not considered one of the core swing states of this election is that it only has 5 electoral votes; but there is every reason to believe that it will be one of the tighest states of the year. It traditionally votes Republican but has become solidly purple in recent cycles. John Kerry got very close to picking up Nevada in 2004.

Democrats know that they have to make inroads out West: The end-of-decade census will lead to Western states to pick up more electoral votes at the expense of the Northeast and the Midwest, and the party would have a very tough time in the presidential election in 2012 and beyond if it cannot count on states like Nevada, New Mexico and Colorado.

  • In North Carolina, the situation looks better for McCain, who leads Clinton 50% to 34% and Obama 51% to 42%.
North Carolina should not be considered a safe Republican state, but it will clearly be an uphill fight for the Democratic nominee. Kerry failed to really move numbers in 2004 despite the presence of John Edwards on his ticket. But the Obama-McCain match-up is within single-digits, after all. It is difficult to imagine North Carolina becoming blue if neighboring Virginia does not do so as well, so if numbers in Virginia start moving away from Republicans (most polls right now show a toss-up) Democrats will be allowed to think of expanding the field to North Carolina and force McCain to play defense there.

In other poll-related news, Robert Novak's latest column in the Washington Post reveals that private polls taken in Pennsylvania showed Clinton expanding her lead way beyond a double-digit edge but that the Obama campaign started telling superdelegates on Friday that their numbers are "coming back" in Pennsylvania and Indiana. No exact numbers are provided but it is clear that a large Clinton victory in PA followed by a solid May 6th would guarantee that Hillary stays in the race and prolongs the nomination fight, no matter whether she still has a chance of tying him in pledged delegates. However likely it is that Obama becomes the nominee, he will have to get some key wins in May to avoid dragging this out to August.

Labels: ,

6 Comments:

Post a Comment

Subscribe to Post Comments [Atom]



<< Home