Count no one out: Florida is wide open (for Republicans, that is)

Four new polls out of Florida today show different leaders and varying margins. The one vague consensus appears to be that it's a McCain versus Romney race with Giuliani and Huckabee lagging behind but well within striking distance. To the numbers:

• The most reputable poll is the St. Petersburg Times's. It has John McCain at 25% with Romney at 23%, with Huckabee and Giuliani at 13%. The poll was conducted prior to Thompson's dropping out and has the former candidate at 4%.
• We also get Democratic numbers from this survey, with Hillary up 42% to 23% for Obama and 12% for Edwards.


• McCain is also ahead in the new Strategic Vision poll which has him up 25% to 22% on Giuliani, with Romney at 20% and Huckabee at 18%. Thompson got 6% in this survey.
• A week ago, Strategic Vision showed McCain ahead 27% to 20% to Huckabee, with Romney at 17%, so the race has tightened.


• And Romney fans get to celebrate because the former governor is up in two other polls. First, an Insider Advantage poll that has him at 24%, with Giuliani at 19%, McCain at 18%, and Huckabee at 12%.
• Second, a PPP survey has Romney leading 28% to McCain's 25%, Giuliani's 19% and Huckabee's 15%.

Huckabee at this point is the only candidate among the top four who is retreating from the Sunshine State. Though he led in some polls here back in the days of his national surge in November, Huckabee doesn't have the money to compete here and expect to see him declining in the coming days. The question, of course, is who Huckabee defectors end up voting for.

Giuliani has put everything in Florida and it seems that he will leave everything there as well if he loses the state. He is spending about $375,000 a day right now, and he is still close enough to hope that investment yields him a victory next Tuesday. Helping Giuliani is the fact that McCain appears to be having some money problem that has forced him to attend fundraisers these past few days instead of traveling around Florida (yet again, this is probably the best time to spend time raising money, given that the campaign will go national immediately after Florida).

But every one is at a loss to explain why Giuliani is still refusing to go after McCain in what could be his only hope of hoping the Senator's momentum at this point. Today, Giuliani released a web video criticizing McCain's opposition to a national catastrophic fund -- but such an attack only has a chance of doing any damage if it is aired on TV or in mailers, of course, not on the Internet. (Update: The WaPo's Fix has a link to this web video and also wonders why Giuliani is not going all-out with this issue that Chris Cillizza describes as a rare clear policy difference that could be a huge political winner. A puzzled Cillizza adds, "We tried to get to the bottom of this decision, speaking with any number of Giuliani advisers. They insisted that the decision not to put the ad on television had nothing to do with money.")

One more reason to not dismiss Giuliani's chances at a strong showing: Don't forget (as I have already discussed) that Giuliani's strength comes from absentee voting and early voting. Recent polls have shown him tied with McCain among those who have already voted (which could be about 25% of the electorate at this point) and looking much weaker among those who have not. But that means that Giuliani has a base of votes that have already come in and that he is more immune than the other candidates to whatever movement occurs in the final week.

• More evening polls: Heading to February 5th

A few more noteworthy polls tonight, starting with Rasmussen's new South Carolina survey, that has Obama with a widening lead, 43% to 28%, with Edwards at 17%. The black votes goes big for Obama, 68% to 16%, with Clinton taking the white vote 40% to 21%. Edwards is second there with 27%.

Meanwhile, we are getting an increasing amount of surveys from February 5th states, some of which have not been surveying that much so it's a good opportunity to get a better idea of what to expect in two weeks:

• In Arizona, a good test of the Western vote in which Latinos could make a difference, the GOP race is not close, as John McCain gets his home-state 41% to 18% for Romney. Everyone else is in single-digits... And it's not usual to see Romney that much stronger than Giuliani in states where the campaign has not engaged, a sure sign that Romney is starting to be paid attention to.
• In the more interesting Democratic race, Clinton has a big 45% to 24% lead. This is the kind of red-leaning state Obama should look into winning to demonstrate his appeal in territory Democrats have struggled in, and he should be helped by Gov. Napolitano's endorsement -- but this is a big lead that will be hard to close.


• Some interesting numbers also from the Alabama primary which has Clinton at 31% and Obama at 28% in what is essentially a statistical tie. Clinton is crushed among the black vote -- but what gives her a small lead her is that Edwards is very weak among white voters, at only 13%.


• Finally, in a Quinnipiac poll of New Jersey, the race to watch is the GOP fight between Giuliani who has slipped into second-place at 26% and McCain who has taken the lead at 29% -- Romney is third at 14%. Thompson gets 9% here -- so the distribution of that vote will be very interesting to watch. Naturally, NJ was supposed to be one of the two most momentum-proof states for Rudy, so...
• Among Democrats, Clinton is leading 49% to 32%, with Edwards at 10% -- but she trails among black voters by just as much as anywhere else, 62% to 27%, showing that she has lost the black vote pretty much nationally at this point.