tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5027045200173644956.post8017761199156356433..comments2023-11-05T02:58:27.295-05:00Comments on Campaign Diaries: Sunday polls: Shifts in the partisan make-up, and unlikely states to host tight racesTanielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17333289018970623022noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5027045200173644956.post-46042105577047131302008-06-02T16:23:00.000-04:002008-06-02T16:23:00.000-04:00It's a fact that Wexler would not approve of the f...It's a fact that Wexler would not approve of the full vote reinstatement. It's a fact that this position of Obama's is perceived as opportunistic and weak. It's a fact that Clinton's moral high ground drives her continued campaign. What factual basis is lacking? Did you miss something?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5027045200173644956.post-71719429165985807432008-06-02T14:41:00.000-04:002008-06-02T14:41:00.000-04:00obama's weaknesses will get better with every demo...obama's weaknesses will get better with every democratic demographic when the nominee is decided (this week). whether it's enough to make states like Arkansas or WV or FL competitive remains to be seen.<BR/><BR/>But again, solid Democratic states like MA, NY and CA are not competitive now and will not be and they are too expensive for the GOP to contest.<BR/><BR/>In as much as a blue collar, bread and butter pitch will help with working class voters in PA and OH and WI, it will help in Worcester as well, but it's not aimed at the folks in MA.<BR/><BR/>the big picture will be the big 15:<BR/>OH, MI, WI, IA, NH, NM, CO, FL, VA, MN, NV, PA, OR, AR, MO. Then, depending on polling after the primary has cooled down and money that each campaign has, Obama may try to extend beyond this list to NC, CDs in NE, MS, MT or AK or McCain may try for WA, ME or NJ.<BR/><BR/>As for the message that resonates with all these states, it's the same one that worked in '76, '80, '92 and '00 - Changing the Incompetent and Corrupt Washington that has failed Americans.st paul sagehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15635941787900709678noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5027045200173644956.post-72438408204868386242008-06-02T14:09:00.000-04:002008-06-02T14:09:00.000-04:00I think Obama's weakness with Clinton supporters m...I think Obama's weakness with Clinton supporters may disapate with some time. Obama and Clinton, in regards to policy, does not appear to me as being much different. Obama has a certain charisma that will help him sway over the majority of the Clinton campers (such as myself).<BR/><BR/>I do believe that Obama needs to be cognizant of how he's being perceived. The church issue is a disaster waiting to happen, and it's not going to play out favorably in the South and Midwest. I'm curious on how his poll numbers will be affected in places like Ohio and Florida.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5027045200173644956.post-37087904519068578992008-06-02T13:45:00.000-04:002008-06-02T13:45:00.000-04:00jaxx raxor is spot on. Feelings are still at a fev...jaxx raxor is spot on. Feelings are still at a fever pitch, and polling in MA won't be very useful till things cool down and the general election campaign begins. Deval Patrick is however wearing out his welcome, and that could have an indeterminate effect on Obama's numbers.<BR/><BR/>Taniel, the weakness Obama has shown amongst blue collar workers and middle income folks is not necessarily driven by the same dynamic that leads to weakness in MA. Its a very different state from Indiana, PA or WVA. I'll wait to see your analysis before saying anything more. <BR/><BR/>anonymous 13:27, please try calming down a bit and provide factual basis for your posts.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5027045200173644956.post-46225082699101584402008-06-02T13:39:00.000-04:002008-06-02T13:39:00.000-04:00jaxx,I do not agree with your dismissal of polls i...jaxx,<BR/>I do not agree with your dismissal of polls in which Obama polls poorly as something that will go away when Obama secures the nomination. That is ignoring Obama's very real consistent weakness in parts of the Democratic coalition and the fact that the two candidates' weakness is not parallel. I will write a long post about this by tomorrow.Tanielhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17333289018970623022noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5027045200173644956.post-72167158918647101782008-06-02T13:27:00.000-04:002008-06-02T13:27:00.000-04:00Obama is suffering from the perception that he's a...Obama is suffering from the perception that he's an opportunistic hack that would destroy democracy itself to gain power. He's a fool to accept this ruling giving him Clinton's delegates and switching the uncommitted ones to him. It's a poison pill that he'd be smart to reject and denounce. The republicans will destroy him on this weakness of character. Wexler practically ruined his chances single-handedly. A true leader would put democracy above himself and usurp Clinton's high ground. We expected the committee to only reinstate half the votes and he should have pushed for whole votes instead of letting himself get trapped opposing it. His unfettered greed is his biggest adversary.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5027045200173644956.post-17104662922187889782008-06-02T08:58:00.000-04:002008-06-02T08:58:00.000-04:00Obama is doing relatively poor in MA because many ...Obama is doing relatively poor in MA because many Clinton supporters at the moment refuse to support him. The Democratic primary may almost be over but Clinton as been very ambigious over whatever she will leave the race after Tuesday or after Obama gets a majority of all delegates, or if she stays in and hopes to switch Obama SDs to her side. I would say that a 13% margin is good when the party is as divided as it is now.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com