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<a href="http://www.oakley--sunglasses.com.co/" rel="nofollow">oakley sunglasses</a>oakleyseshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02221561593432696548noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5027045200173644956.post-17338652237453297922008-06-20T22:30:00.000-04:002008-06-20T22:30:00.000-04:00Umm, 4 sure pickups. What about Virginia, the sur...Umm, 4 sure pickups. What about Virginia, the surest of them all?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5027045200173644956.post-39691441404048258552008-06-20T19:47:00.000-04:002008-06-20T19:47:00.000-04:00jaxx raxor, I think Shaheen will win, but I wouldn...jaxx raxor, I think Shaheen will win, but I wouldn't spend much time using Santorum as a comparison. Santorum was an ideological zealot; Sununu is a far more shrewd and apparently flexible conservative. It's going to depend on what happens in the presidentials. Lynch is very strong, but he keeps a healthy distance from other Dems, and his relationship with Shaheen has always been rather mid-distance. Shaheen may receive collateral benefit from Lynch's strength, but it will be more a question of fall-out than any direct support Lynch would give her.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5027045200173644956.post-11015906454411346972008-06-20T16:57:00.000-04:002008-06-20T16:57:00.000-04:00I live in MD-4 and I actually voted in tuesday's s...I live in MD-4 and I actually voted in tuesday's special primary despite the fact that Edwards was a shoo in. MD-04 is the most democratic district in Maryland (Cook PVI of D+30). It is important to know that Edwards was only able to win in the february primary not just because Wynn was more conservative than his district but that the district is so overwhelming democratic and Edwards had alot of high profile backers. Of course, having Obama at the top of the dem primary ticket didn't hurt either. The grassroots failed in overturning other Democratic incumbents though to be too conservative mainly because the challangers were underfunded and the district wasn't overwhelming democratic.<BR/><BR/>In IN-07, Elrond's departure make a lean democrat seat to a safe democrat seat. It really is a shame, Elrond would have gotten a real chance of winning the seat or even coming close if the RCCC was able to back him up with ads like how the democrats did in thier three successful special election take overs. I don't think any real strong Republican will come up to challange Carson after Elrond's departure.<BR/><BR/>In IN-09, the SUSA polls seems very interesting. The seat leans republican and it is a presidential year but I think that damaged GOP brand and Obama likely to keep his margin of loss down will help Hill in his reelection campaign. In a neutral enviroment both men would be even: sondrel needs McCain's help to take out Hill but it may not be enough.<BR/><BR/>On the Minnesota race I think that Ventura would definitly make it harder for Franken. Many democrats are upset over his porn jokes and they would likely gravitate to Ventura if he was to enter. Coleman would lose alot of GOP support as well but he would keep more of it himself than Franken could keep democrats and walk away with a victory. Ventura would only give Coleman a few more points but it would definitly help him more. Also I disagree with you on Ventura's rise to the governorship: the fact that there was no incumbent in 1998 helped him in his suprise victory, although his rudeness during his tenor has probably ended any real chances of him being elected to another political position.<BR/><BR/>On Kentucky, I'm not sure how truly competive Lunsford is. Being a conservative is something liberals will have to accept because liberal democrats cannot win statewide in Kentucky but giving to McConnell himself will hurt.<BR/><BR/>Finally on New Hampshire, it is clear that Shaheen is going to beat Sununu. She has had a signifcant statistical lead in every poll except during the episdode with her husband and Obama's drug use. However, I wouldn't say that Sununu is a 2008 santorum. In 2006, Santorum was always behind and almost always behind by double digits, while in general Sununu has only been behind by single digits in most of the polls (althought out of margin of error). I would say that Sununu is more like a DeWine (former senator of Ohio who lost to Sherrod Brown in 2006), who was generally behind but not as much Santorum and had a chance for a combat until the last month of the campaign. The GOP will (probably already has) given up on Virginia and will probalby soon give up on New Mexico if Pearce hasn't gotten a unity boost, but they will be reluctant to give up on an incumbent until later in the process, like they did with Dewine. Santorum was an exception because he was behind by double digits almost throughout the entire campaing and not once got within the margin of error to Casey.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com