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<a href="http://www.oakley--sunglasses.com.co/" rel="nofollow">oakley sunglasses</a>oakleyseshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02221561593432696548noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5027045200173644956.post-9615930199732564992008-05-01T17:20:00.000-04:002008-05-01T17:20:00.000-04:00ignoring data again? You can go to RCP too you kno...<I>ignoring data again? You can go to RCP too you know.</I><BR/><BR/>And I do. And I see some polls with Clinton doing better against McCain than Obama, and some with Obama doing better, and the differences well within the polls' margins of error. The more recent ones are more in Clinton's favor, to be expected with Obama having a tough few weeks, but they're still within the polling margin of error. And some in the "Obama can't win" crowd have been saying that for weeks, even when older polls that had Obama slightly better against McCain than Clinton.<BR/><BR/>They're certainly far too close to conclude with the "can't win" certainty that one can win but the other definitely can't, especially this far from November.dsimonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01997716795133693794noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5027045200173644956.post-25501323028878387452008-05-01T15:15:00.000-04:002008-05-01T15:15:00.000-04:00dsimon-ignoring data again? You can go to RCP too ...dsimon-ignoring data again? You can go to RCP too you know.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5027045200173644956.post-14236065534258763722008-05-01T11:21:00.000-04:002008-05-01T11:21:00.000-04:00I can't help that it's matter of pointing out why ...<I>I can't help that it's matter of pointing out why Obama can't win.</I><BR/><BR/>But where is that in the data? Don't national polls against McCain show both Democratic candidates doing about the same? If so, how can we conclude with absolute, or even marginal, confidence that one candidate can win but the other can't?<BR/><BR/>I just don't see how it is that either candidate "can't" win. The issues favor the Democrats, so it seems to me that either candidate should win.dsimonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01997716795133693794noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5027045200173644956.post-91620324394716570722008-05-01T11:05:00.000-04:002008-05-01T11:05:00.000-04:00I'm supporting the best nominee, then the Democrat...I'm supporting the best nominee, then the Democratic party. Despite repeated accusations from Obamabots that I'm a Hillary fan, I've consistently favored the most electable candidate. I can't help that it's matter of pointing out why Obama can't win. That's Obama's fault. If Barack was the most electable I'd have no choice to point out why Hillary isn't. If you Obamans spent as much time attacking his detrimental aspects as you do attacking the messenger, he'd be doing far better than he is.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5027045200173644956.post-51455381645741337042008-05-01T10:50:00.000-04:002008-05-01T10:50:00.000-04:00(in other words, let's respect the amazing job the...(in other words, let's respect the amazing job the blogger is doing with regards to remaining unbiased and respectful of all POVs and do the same in our commenting)Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15674303788858856734noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5027045200173644956.post-57021125914218510382008-05-01T10:49:00.000-04:002008-05-01T10:49:00.000-04:00wow...the comments are really getting out of hand ...wow...the comments are really getting out of hand on this really civil, rather unbiased, well-written blogUnknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15674303788858856734noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5027045200173644956.post-60089500378610924852008-05-01T10:25:00.000-04:002008-05-01T10:25:00.000-04:00A survey of 571 registered likely voters in North ...<I>A survey of 571 registered likely voters in North Carolina’s May 6 Democratic primary shows Sen. Hillary Clinton having moved from a double digit deficit in an InsiderAdvantage poll taken in mid-April to a two point lead over Sen. Barack Obama</I><BR/><BR/>It's possible that the poll is correct. It's also possible that the poll is like the PPP polls that twice had Obama up by three points going into Pennsylvania.<BR/><BR/>In addition to the polling results, it's important to keep in mind two other numbers: the margin of error, and the confidence interval.<BR/><BR/>The typical confidence interval is 95%. That means if ran the poll 20 times, it would capture the value in the population within the margin of error 19 times.<BR/><BR/>So the above poll says that there's a 95% chance that Clinton has between 40 and 48% of the vote, and Obama has between 38 and 46%. And there's a 5% chance that the vote is outside of those ranges.<BR/><BR/>There's a lot of polling being done, so eventually we'll run into the one out of twenty that's just off. Can't say whether this is one of them (we shouldn't go around saying the polls that support one candidate must be right and the ones that don't are wrong). But it's something to keep in mind when looking at polls.dsimonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01997716795133693794noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5027045200173644956.post-14573438019629485212008-05-01T10:18:00.000-04:002008-05-01T10:18:00.000-04:00Here's a nice example; while touring a turbine pla...Here's a nice example; while touring a turbine plant in Ind. he likened a part to a "surfboard"! Surfboards are real popular in that neck of the woods! He's just not fitting in.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5027045200173644956.post-81446181109276962502008-05-01T10:06:00.000-04:002008-05-01T10:06:00.000-04:00Dsimon you don't count. Cult members excluded.Dsimon you don't count. Cult members excluded.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5027045200173644956.post-7933739173697718992008-05-01T10:05:00.000-04:002008-05-01T10:05:00.000-04:00Well Jaxx get ready for a sickening day. Obama is ...Well Jaxx get ready for a sickening day. Obama is going to be derided thoroughly and his wife has just reminded everyone that she also hates America. Barack, through his own stupidity has made himself public enemy no.1. People just don't support anti-Americanism. It might make you sick but your blindness to his obvious shortcomings don't stop the presses. So toughen up and take it. Next time you could use perspective to foresee this. This race was a process of elimination for me since I started out thinking Edwards was the obvious winner. I gave both Hillary and Barack fair chances but Barack has steered his campaign off a cliff. There's no chance now for him.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5027045200173644956.post-17564708097096612772008-05-01T09:58:00.000-04:002008-05-01T09:58:00.000-04:00Everyone in this country now sees Obama as hating ...<I>Everyone in this country now sees Obama as hating America and Hillary as overwhelmingly patriotic.</I><BR/><BR/>Everyone? Really?dsimonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01997716795133693794noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5027045200173644956.post-62407115728691165932008-05-01T09:52:00.000-04:002008-05-01T09:52:00.000-04:00Anonymous 9:23 you have the right to be a Clinton ...Anonymous 9:23 you have the right to be a Clinton supporter but your flaming and absolute derishion of Obama is sickening.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5027045200173644956.post-5414414726517163822008-05-01T09:23:00.000-04:002008-05-01T09:23:00.000-04:00Hmm now the Clinton's are a machine again? Raising...Hmm now the Clinton's are a machine again? Raising money? She leads in the popular vote and leads in support from Democrats. Your assertion of correctness is a direct assault on our values as Democrats as well as Americans. I guess that's not surprising from someone who supports the America haters. Everyone in this country now sees Obama as hating America and Hillary as overwhelmingly patriotic. I'd say she has the commanding lead and future polling will bear that out.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5027045200173644956.post-10959403099753469542008-05-01T09:01:00.000-04:002008-05-01T09:01:00.000-04:00Joe Andrews switched and he does not represent an ...Joe Andrews switched and he does not represent an area but is from Indiana - not a state known for having a large AA population. He is white and was appointed by Bill CLinton, supported Hillary and has witched. Umm not the best scenario for Clinton.<BR/><BR/>Obama is doing well in the polls when you consider him having two opponents - one Democratic and one from the GOP. Then he has the whole Wright issue.<BR/><BR/>Obama is the front runner in terms of delegates and popular vote (correctly counted).<BR/>But it is true that compared to the Clinton "machine" he is the underdog. Clinton can raise money, has played the "game" a long time etc etc and yet she is still behind. Hardly a ringing endorsement of her abilities.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5027045200173644956.post-36543795126428621792008-05-01T08:46:00.000-04:002008-05-01T08:46:00.000-04:00Jaxx-the Obama campaign insists you stop using "fr...Jaxx-the Obama campaign insists you stop using "frontrunner" and use "underdog" instead. He can't take the heat. I don't think anyone has to go after Obama. Wright has it covered.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5027045200173644956.post-9357128598818319402008-05-01T08:30:00.000-04:002008-05-01T08:30:00.000-04:00Obama will be the frontrunner as long as he keeps ...Obama will be the frontrunner as long as he keeps his 100+ PD lead. Anon 23:16 I haven't seen that poll, but if Clinton actually WINS NC, then I'm afraid it will be the beginning of the end for the Obama campaign. To lose in a state that favors Clinton is one thing, to lose in a state that you yourself is favored is another. If Clinton pulls it off, I think some SDs supporting Obama will start switching to Clinton. Netherless, I think that Obama's weakness in the GE compared to Clinton has to do with all of hte negative stories being primarly about him, with the GOP, Clinton, and the MSM going after him, while Clinton is being forgotten and just like the forgotten McCain is rising in support.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5027045200173644956.post-87412856309749752882008-05-01T08:17:00.000-04:002008-05-01T08:17:00.000-04:00Mike you missed yesterday's memo. Obama's the "und...Mike you missed yesterday's memo. Obama's the "underdog" now, he's no longer the "frontrunner". Get with the program.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5027045200173644956.post-33118467329431015292008-05-01T08:09:00.000-04:002008-05-01T08:09:00.000-04:00Probably white too. Don't you people get it? It's ...Probably white too. Don't you people get it? It's very popular to be seen as supporting the black guy when you have a black constituency. Knowing that he can't win means it's a safe cover. When Barack drops out, they can all say "not me" and try to quell the "bloodbath" the Obamabots keep promising.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5027045200173644956.post-46047998650842790572008-05-01T08:01:00.000-04:002008-05-01T08:01:00.000-04:00I heard that a superdelegate pledged to Clinton ha...I heard that a superdelegate pledged to Clinton has switched and now supports Obama. He was an ex chairman of the DNC. I thought it was meant to be Obama worried about his SD's switiching, maybe not all doom and gloom for the front runner.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5027045200173644956.post-41388893443667319072008-05-01T07:50:00.000-04:002008-05-01T07:50:00.000-04:00Looks like today brought a loss for Obama in NC.Looks like today brought a loss for Obama in NC.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5027045200173644956.post-11696014834978614952008-05-01T07:30:00.000-04:002008-05-01T07:30:00.000-04:00Did any body hear that Obama was planning a sudden...Did any body hear that Obama was planning a sudden withdrawal next week? That would be pretty abrupt. I know he's in trouble but he should at least wait for the papers to break it.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5027045200173644956.post-12306445008058292052008-05-01T07:28:00.000-04:002008-05-01T07:28:00.000-04:007:04-Please continue your rants. You're the reason...7:04-Please continue your rants. You're the reason Obama will never succeed. Obamans hate America and are hate filled bigots like you. Thank you for confirming it.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com