tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5027045200173644956.post6644937275833374905..comments2023-11-05T02:58:27.295-05:00Comments on Campaign Diaries: A few more late afternoon polls: Obama leads in his second FL poll, but OH is tiedTanielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17333289018970623022noreply@blogger.comBlogger1125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5027045200173644956.post-36564297470764158122008-06-18T19:51:00.000-04:002008-06-18T19:51:00.000-04:00NH will be hard to predict. The Obama-Clinton woun...NH will be hard to predict. The Obama-Clinton wounds run pretty deep there, and large segments of the strong female electorate, well represented in the political infrastructure, are warily hanging back. There have been some initial moves towards unity, but much remains to be done. <BR/><BR/>Reproductive rights will be a big issue here. Female Clinton supporters aren't buying that hogwash that a Dem Senate can somehow neuter (nice choice of words) McCain's enthusiasm for abortion restrictions, and he won't be able to dodge that bullet. However, he is the one person the GOP infrastructure was really enthusiastic about, and he'll galvanize more party voters than might be true elsewhere, esp. as fundamentalism is not as major political factor there. People talk about NH in classic Red-Blue-Purple terms but that doesn't quite capture it. It's a libertarian state on both the Right and the Left, with an admixture of traditional liberals, and there's significant mistrust over McCain's support for the Bushian notion of an imperial presidency.<BR/><BR/>On Sununu-Shaheen, Sununu has done a good job with constituent services, and even people who dislike his politics give him reluctant props for that. Also, the RNC has targeted this as a high profile seat to preserve. Shaheen is popular, but enthusiasm is a bit muted by what is perceived as a rather lackluster 2 terms as Governor, and she is not a high energy campaigner. The current spread is surprising. I would expect it to narrow, but it would take a strong McCain run at the top of the ticket to drag Sununu along.<BR/><BR/>Lynch has enormous popularity figures, although the failure to effect education funding is beginning to gnaw away a little. Fortunately for him, his GOP opponent is a nonentity, and that's an understatement.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com