tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5027045200173644956.post5876510447162122360..comments2023-11-05T02:58:27.295-05:00Comments on Campaign Diaries: Quinnipiac polls the big three, uncovering both Democrats' usual weaknessesTanielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17333289018970623022noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5027045200173644956.post-66679079989587594782008-04-03T07:17:00.000-04:002008-04-03T07:17:00.000-04:00Obama's weakness among Democrats is still a factor...Obama's weakness among Democrats is still a factor in this nomination process. Dean has publicly committed himself to seating the delegates from Fla and Mich. That puts this race within 1% of the popular vote. There will definitely not be a safe bet on who will get the nod until the very last minute. Both of them need to prove their stamina. It ain't over until the fat lady sings, sometime over the summer. Meanwhile McCain is neutered by facing an unknown candidate. Let him throw punches at shadows.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5027045200173644956.post-19758654292252865422008-04-03T06:11:00.000-04:002008-04-03T06:11:00.000-04:00Clinton outpaces Obama in registered DEMS at the c...Clinton outpaces Obama in registered DEMS at the current time, but should he get the nomination, most of those registered DEMS will fall in line behind him.<BR/><BR/>45% of registered GOPers who voted for McCain against Bush in the 2000 primaries said they would vote for Al Gore, and this threat never materialized.<BR/><BR/>Wait until the convention is over and the bounce is here.Statistikhengsthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14117706673612587798noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5027045200173644956.post-41201333263015485102008-04-02T18:05:00.000-04:002008-04-02T18:05:00.000-04:00I agree with oot - we are in the heat of the prima...I agree with oot - we are in the heat of the primary battle and people say things now they will not follow through in Nov. If they did follow through thenboth candidates are sunk with 20%+ crossover.<BR/>Taniel you said :<BR/>"As always, it would make little sense to draw overarching conslusions about which candidate is most electable based on these polls, except perhaps in the case of Florida as a consensus seems to be developing that Florida is a state in which Obama would struggle more than Clinton, just as there is a consensus developing that Clinton would struggle much more in Oregon, Colorado and Washington."<BR/><BR/>Oregon and Washington voted Democratic in 2000 and 2004 - they are necessary for victory. FL isn`t. Kerry would have won in 2004 with Ohio (or VA and CO). FL is nice butnot needed. OR and WA are part of the base of weak Dem states (like MI, WI, MN) and Obama does better in all those.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5027045200173644956.post-84737973605297748512008-04-02T17:51:00.000-04:002008-04-02T17:51:00.000-04:00I'd be careful over-weighting the Demo cross-over ...I'd be careful over-weighting the Demo cross-over votes. Many of those could be Clinton supporters who are presently outraged by the possibility she may not get the nod, and are acting out. Somewhere I've read that something like 30% of those who threaten actually do it, which will affect the numbers significantly.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com