tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5027045200173644956.post5236864866554273665..comments2023-11-05T02:58:27.295-05:00Comments on Campaign Diaries: NV and AR polls: All eyes on the Southwest, and Southern hopes rest on increased turnoutTanielhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17333289018970623022noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5027045200173644956.post-10378087998447316542008-06-16T14:38:00.000-04:002008-06-16T14:38:00.000-04:00I have an analysis of poll movement in KANSAS here...I have an analysis of poll movement in <B>KANSAS</B> here <A HREF="http://rosenthalswelt.blogspot.com/2008/06/obamas-inroads-into-west.html" REL="nofollow">at my blog</A>. The data is fascinating, to say the least.Statistikhengsthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14117706673612587798noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5027045200173644956.post-542123922550467252008-06-16T13:48:00.000-04:002008-06-16T13:48:00.000-04:00Obama should forget about AR. In two more weeks h...Obama should forget about AR. In two more weeks he will be behind in there by 10-15 points, the can of territory that makes the state unwinnable for him. He is better served by concentrating in the places that he can really win. McCain will make a push for that Latino vote in NV. At the end of the day I am convinced he will narrow that gap with the Latino voters. Obama will make a strong play in NV and NM, and look at AR in the rear view mirror.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5027045200173644956.post-25290052064338630352008-06-16T10:00:00.000-04:002008-06-16T10:00:00.000-04:00anonymous, my reference was to losing a given stat...anonymous, my reference was to losing a given state and not the GE. I was suggesting that with Obama's enormous financial advantage, forcing McCain to throw dollars into a state that Obama possibly won't win anyway, weakens McCain elsewhere and makes Obama's election more likely, in addition to helping down-ticket in that state.<BR/><BR/>For McCain, spending is a zero sum game, given his limited resources. Same is true for redirecting his organizational resources, which are somewhat more limited than Obama's.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5027045200173644956.post-81746527324821698442008-06-16T08:11:00.000-04:002008-06-16T08:11:00.000-04:00There's no doubt that Obama will help down ballot ...There's no doubt that Obama will help down ballot candidates, but trading the WH for it just doesn't sound worthwhile.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5027045200173644956.post-78501894612582553742008-06-16T08:10:00.000-04:002008-06-16T08:10:00.000-04:00With Obama's resources, it may be sufficient simpl...With Obama's resources, it may be sufficient simply to force McCain into defending states he thought would be a walk-over. Another factor is the Obama campaign's enormous successes with voter registration and voter turn-out efforts. Disproportionately, AA voters remain unregistered in many Southern states, and drawing that bloc into the election could have a significant effect. In LA, the registrars (many of them GOP) are already howling about being swamped with new voter registrations, a possible precursor to vote suppression down there.<BR/><BR/>So, the goal isn't necessarily to win, failing which you lose - its more complex than that.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5027045200173644956.post-15720394362304009742008-06-16T07:32:00.000-04:002008-06-16T07:32:00.000-04:00At first, I thought that Obama did not have a rat'...At first, I thought that Obama did not have a rat's chance in hell of taking AR, but if he is able to shrink the margin from -24 to -9 in just ten days, imagine what is possible over 5 months.<BR/><BR/>That being said, I think McCain will carry AR, but Obama could turn it into yet another battleground, forcing the GOP to divert funds and energy and TIME to states it thought were safe, thus limiting it's chance to challenge in blue states.Statistikhengsthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14117706673612587798noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5027045200173644956.post-32618258144952346342008-06-16T03:36:00.000-04:002008-06-16T03:36:00.000-04:00While losing by 10% instead of 20% won't help Obam...While losing by 10% instead of 20% won't help Obama get into the White House, it should help the Democrats win a few more down ticket races. Maybe even flip a state legislature or two. Winning on the state level would be huge, especially with the 2010 census coming up.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com