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daily polls that have been coming out, and this 15 point Newsweek poll. There has been some evidence that the traditionally blue states have begun consolidating behind the Democratic nominee, while polls are showing that even in some of the reddest states in the country, Obama is measurably gaining ground. The state polls aren't enough to reflect that blowout number Newsweek put up, but they do provide some evidence of movement toward Obama that the general polls don't seem to have picked up on yet. This seems to be because the daily general election polls are sticking to a more rigid view of the electorate, while polls like this are willing to project the election based on the gains in party id that the Democratic party has had over the Republican.<BR/><BR/>It's still true however that no poll done in June has ever won a general election.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5027045200173644956.post-25465997045317426692008-06-21T15:27:00.000-04:002008-06-21T15:27:00.000-04:00"But in the end, McCain is dragged down by Bush in..."But in the end, McCain is dragged down by Bush in 2008 just as much as he was in 2000."<BR/>How ironic Bush destroyed Mac in 2000 and it will destroy him in 2008, sadAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5027045200173644956.post-42696508814307619862008-06-21T13:47:00.000-04:002008-06-21T13:47:00.000-04:00McCain is definitly going to use negative advertis...McCain is definitly going to use negative advertising. Probably not as nasty as you say Zoot but McCain knows that Obama will win this election by default unless he convinces Americans that Obama is too risky to hand over the presidentcy. The bradly could also come into play althrough it's effect has probably lessened based on the fact that Harold Ford Jr. lost the 2006 tennesse Senate race by about the same amount that polls were showing.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5027045200173644956.post-69612814678020445442008-06-21T11:42:00.000-04:002008-06-21T11:42:00.000-04:00anonymous, I agree with you. This campaign is goin...anonymous, I agree with you. This campaign is going to be exceptionally nasty, despite high minded statements by each candidate. Bush is an albatross for McCain, and he's defying conventional logic by hewing close to the Bush line on taxes, Iraq, surveillance, etc. Sooner or later,he and his advisers will conclude that they're not getting there with positive campaigning - hasn't been very much to date - and will sharpen their attacks on Obama to 'warn voters about what they're getting into if [you] elect him'. It's not that they're all cynical about this, although some are - it's in the nature of politics that after a while, you begin to believe what you're saying, that the choices are Manichean if you will and the other candidate is the anti-Christ,so negative campaigning somehow transmutes into warning the electorate of real dangers in a flawed candidate.<BR/><BR/>Conventional wisdom is that negative campaigning won't work in 2008. I lean towards that, but it sure as hell will tighten things considerably. That, and the Bradley effect, which I've come to believe in.<BR/><BR/>The only real value of polls this far out is in identifying the groups that you're not yet reaching.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5027045200173644956.post-42921798937453336602008-06-21T09:24:00.000-04:002008-06-21T09:24:00.000-04:00Don't let this poll fool you. This race is far too...Don't let this poll fool you. This race is far too close for comfort. Obamans need to temper their cockiness. That phony seal is a bad sign. Once you start getting spoiled like that, something can take you down a few notches. Humility is key to getting broad support. I think the 20% range of Dems over pugs is accurate, so I'd feel better with a consistent 15-20% lead going forward. This 6% lead lately makes me uncomfortable.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5027045200173644956.post-45960981888841143952008-06-21T07:42:00.000-04:002008-06-21T07:42:00.000-04:00As good as newsweek poll sounds, to mee it looks l...As good as newsweek poll sounds, to mee it looks like an outlier because every other recent poll shows Obama only a few points ahead and usually within the Margin of error. If other polls start to register an double digit lead, then McCain will be in trouble because it would mean that he is failing at getting disaffected Democrats to vote for him. McCain is on his way onto consolidating the GOP base seeing how he is getting about 85% of republicans nationally and sometimes higher in individual states, while Obama is at about 80%with Democrats nationally and generally only in the 70s in key swing states. However, if Obama can increase his democratic support to match McCain's support among Republicans and stay even or win the independent vote, McCain cannot win the election, as there are about 10% more Democrats than they are Republicans right now. The Newsweek poll is probably overstating the number of democrats (19% is probably too much) which is why Obama is so far ahead in this poll.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5027045200173644956.post-23170417329726490092008-06-21T07:23:00.000-04:002008-06-21T07:23:00.000-04:00As the Clinton campaign fades to a distant memory ...As the Clinton campaign fades to a distant memory her supporters are slowly moving to the only logical choice they have, Obama. I expect the polls will level out over the next few weeks until the conventions at about a 10% (+/-3%) Obama advantage. Media coverage, gaffes and campaign ad influences will account for daily movements in the poll numbers. The conventions are the next big opportunity for either party to move ahead in the polls. Until then Obama would appear to have a clear advantage in all three of the poll movers.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com